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Fist of all, I'd like to wish all my readers who celebrate Thanksgiving a happy and safe holiday. The market continues to unfold in a choppy and sideways manner that is consistent with corrective structures. As I have previously mentioned, w.4 is unfolding in either a triangle or flat...

Last time I left the readership with the thought that the market is working a minor degree w. developing in either a flat or triangle corrective structure. As long as 1171 holds my view of the wave structure remains intact. From the two charts that were presented in the week in review, I was...

Here's the market's position as of the close on 11/19/2010. Momentum: Weekly is OB and has turned down. Daily is bullish but not OB. 60 min. is OB. Pattern: W.c of wave.2. Either a triangle or flat correction for w.4 Time: No analysis made. Trade Strategy: Remain flat until w.4 wave...

Turning my attention to the 60 min. chart levels, I've shown the charts for flat and triangle interpretation. Until I see how the pattern is unfolding, I can't make a near term forecast beyond what I have noted.

ES_F Forecast: At the daily chart level, I'm still working a w.4 retracement whereas the wave pattern should unfold in either a flat correction or a triangle, followed by a new recovery high. This interpretation bodes well for a market that undergoing compressing. Between the flat and...

PART 1 of 4 Announcements: Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, there will not be a week in review published for 11/22- 11/26. The Week In Review: The month of November has been strong for all dollar denominated asset classes as investors rationalized buying everything in hope that the...

Today was certainly a snoozer... that is until 2:50 est. As most of you know from my Twitter posts, identifying the current wave count on lower TF's was difficult as prices chopped back and forth. Sideways corrections are always difficult to identify the termination points because there are...

Finally, at the 60 min. chart level I've labeled the wave structure as well as included the corrective price channel. As long as price remains within the channel during the decline... the structure remains corrective. That would be consistent with the interpretation at the daily chart level...

I've added another daily chart showing an indicator that Jeff Kennedy of EWI developed. Note what transpires as the black MOAD line drops below the purple 30 ma. Should this occur, a sizable sell off would occur. The indicator last made a similar cross right after the April top. I'll be keeping...

Selling pressure continued today even though traders tried to buy the market at the open. The decline from the highs does not appear to be complete. The decline could be the start of w.3 as I depicted in the week in review or just a w.4 correction. The fact that selling pressure was on weak...

Under Scenario #3: the current wave pattern would unfold in a triangle fourth wave. The current rally whether complete or not should result in a sizable decline in three waves proportionate to a .618 retracement of w.( a - b). This implies a possible decline below 1003.1. Of course much depends...

Under Scenario #2: the current rally is viewed as minor w. B of Intermediate w. (B) is unfolding as an expanded flat correction whereas w. B exceeds the origin of w. A. This implies that w.B would extend higher once the current decline that began on 11/9/10 ends. I'll post termination points as...

QE2 vs Elliott Wave Theory. Which One Wins Out In this weeks review I want to spend some time looking at the bigger picture and other possible wave counts that may provide us with an additional bias as to where the market is heading. This is a three part post. Currently I have already...

On Monday I stated that price action either began a complex w.iv decline or it ended at the 1214.75 low. Yesterday a new high was struck that might indicate that w.3 had been struck. However, today's decline still leaves the potential for a more complex forth wave at the daily chart level...

One thing that clear is that the FED has manipulated the market again much like it did in late 2002 and 2003. The thought process is clear. Inflate and kick the can (the bigger problem at hand) further down the road. In the meantime, investors and traders alike love the backstop. They say...

The market made little progress in either direction today. This was expected as the wave pattern suggested that last Friday's close was a mature w.3. Today's price action either began a complex w.iv decline or it ended at the 1214.75 low. I have attached the 60 min chart to complement the weekly...

The wave structure is now exhibiting a new personality . One that no longer allows me to maintain a stance of looking immediately lower in a big way due to the fact that prices has now exceeded the upper corrective channel by a significant amount which usually signals the presence of 3rd wave...

From Monday's post, the wave structure called for a new recovery high. The combination of several somewhat positive economic reports, the election results and the FED's QEII announcement provided comfort for traders to push the market higher. Bottom Line: Price made a new recovery high and...

Not much has changed from what I posted in my week in review. I still am expecting volatility and a new high. A break below 1167.75 would negate the immediate upside potential. Should a new high be struck after the FED's announcement, I am not expecting a sustained rally. If so, my analysis of...

Happy Halloween. While everyone is trick or treating tonight, Wall Street might be celebrating the holiday twice this coming week. One for the elections and the other for the FED's policy meeting. Both announcements should bring some added volatility to the market. In anticipation of these...