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I'm not well-versed in this theory, but it seems like the fed's choices are often a large, binary event. But doesn't the amount they raise it also affect things? Couldn't they just raise it a tiny amount and make it less about whether they will raise rates, but by how much?

I got assigned early on a leg of a butterfly spread because I didn't pay attention to the dividends on SPY. It was the Thursday night before the previous dividends. If I recall, the leg was a 213 Call and SPY was 215 the night before. Good lesson. Luckily, the position gapped in my favor the...

I mean, TA is predicated on the theory that it gives you an edge in predicting future movements. I may be being pedantic, but I also don't understand your question. What's the difference between "gauging and reacting." and "anticipating?" Or "predicting," etc? I would trust a TA pattern with...

Good read. Always waiting for a bigger fool... So, eventually the bigger fools will run out and everything will come crashing down on whoever is last holding the hot potatoes... Fair, the VIX isn't that bad. So am I wrong in thinking the attitude is constant doom and gloom and bubble...

I feel like semantically, "noise" is an inappropriate term. Signal noise is when interference or something else is obstructing the desired signal. But, whether the time frame is 1 minute, 1 tick, or 1 month, all that data is true data. However, it is difficult to practically make sense of any...

https://www.sec.gov/news/studies/2010/marketevents-report.pdf I couldn't find notes on whether this count was exhaustive or a small sample, but since this was an investigation into the roots of the issue, I'm assuming they took a look at everybody involved that day. On page 29, it reveals...

People seem so worried and doom and gloom about high valuations and an equities crash...so doesn't that mean it won't happen? Or at least, not in the catastrophic way we imagine it? I imagine everyone is being cautious and perhaps not entirely committed to being long in this market, that if...

Semiconductors

What I'm saying, though, is that calling it a "reversal" puts it on some new pedestal. There is more pressure implied because you have an open position that you need to reverse. You close trades, and you open new ones. If it is, coincidentally, a reversal, then sure. But don't let a current...

Also, I don't think "reversing" should be an idea you consider...it's really like two trades. If you're long, and the trend shows weakness, covering could be prudent. But is it a short signal? Would you enter a short if you were flat at the same moment?

1. Crossing Orders? Stop trading so fast! Get success on a slower timeframe, first. Why add latency and speed into the battle unless you can improve some proven profitability that you have trading slower? 2. Analyzing gaps isn't a terrible baseline for a strategy, but something as simple as...

The question is as mechanical as it gets; I'm not asking any strategy-related questions. I'm sure it differs from firm to firm, but literally, for a given hedge fund, is it one guy calling a shot, a team of analysts chattering about it, and one guy pushing a button? What are some notable firms...

From inception to execution, assuming it's not fully automated. I guess I have always found it a funny idea to imagine that somewhere at a renowned hedge fund is still some guy in front of a computer pushing BUY and SELL, except they're operating with far more capital and have to iceberg...

I will ask the drone instead of the zombie-eyed retail worker whether I should go with the blue or the yellow.

Well, if returns were made absurdly easy, such as being able to hand it back to the courier who delivered my next Amazon product... or to hand it back to the Amazon drone... heh. But, that's me. I do not think Amazon is underestimating the number of people who will tolerate slightly different...

I don't think it would make brick and mortar extinct, but I think the portion of the population that will settle for augmented reality over having to go anywhere or return anything is bigger than we think, and there is a slice of market share to still be taken. Capitalizing on laziness works...

Met a programmer working for a startup involved in making an easy way to digitize your body at home or in-studio and use it to dress online avatars for online retail. It's not far off.

Everyone short for the day got squeezed out by OPEC news.

Manage your trade in a way that avoids being stopped out by noise. For short term trading, you should have mental stoplosses, i.e. a recognition that your original trade is no longer worth staying in. A little spike here and there can be suffered as long as your original trade works out. You...

I thought stop losses lived with your brokers until activated, not on the exchanges?