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Trading cycles has an appeal to me, but I have never been able to get them to work sufficiently well to have a positive expectancy. However, reading Ehlers work has forced me to learn about digital signal processing, which is a good thing.

The man for cycles analysis in finance John Ehlers https://www.mesasoftware.com/TechnicalArticles.htm

The calculation of risk/reward and probabilities when talking about the underlying instrument is always going to have huge error margins. Using options to calculate risk/reward and probabilities is more straightforward. Although using options still have error margins in the calculations because...

Since you brought up the Fourier Transform: What does option pricing have to do with converting a periodic function in the time domain into the frequency domain?

See what you all can do with this moving average: A one-pole infinite impulse response (IIR) filter, otherwise known as an exponential moving average, in forward-backward mode. H(Z)*H(-Z) in technical terms. This filter will double the attenuation of the of the forward only IIR filter and will...

It has been twenty years or more since I read his book, but it seemed to me to all boil down to a pattern recognition methodology. As such, it was just way too subjective, much like many pattern recognition schemes. Outside of defining rules around my own interpretation of CANSLIM, does O'Neil...

Gee, nobody knows or can forecast the future with anything greater than 50% precision. I'm shocked.

IMO, a simple MA crossover or MA slope change, no matter the lookback period, will never result in a positive expectancy trading system. The reason why is group delay, commonly called lag. If you persist in using trend filters, look into tracking filters, such as alpha-beta-gamma or Kalman...

If you insist on selling options, look at selling the ones where you maximize probability of profit x (reward/risk). In theory, that should work out better than just having a high probability of profit. I say better, but I'm of the opinion that selling option premium only will ultimately result...

It is in the article. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are inefficient vehicles to directly conduct transactions and trading with. Thus all the other elements of a liquid financial system come into existence.

What do you propose that folks do with this data? GE has probably been highly negative for years, and not gone bankrupt. Should we buy the lowest quantile of companies and hold for x years? Buy the highest quantile and hold for x years. It seems like any investing thesis could be applied to this...

This cycle chart is kind of BS. Since low and high are relative and not absolute (except for zero), and the fact that price structure is fractal to some degree, these cycles could apply at any time scale. Maximum opportunity could exist at any price depending on what happens in the future...

Zurich Axiom #2: Always take your profit too soon. Summary of "The Zurich Axioms" by Max Gunther

Price is lognormally distributed with some amount of skew and kurtosis. The thing is, skew and kurtosis are themselves stochastic. Therefore, implied volatility is stochastic. Nobody has a good stochastic volatility model. If they did, selling options only would be an almost sure bet to riches...

Your rules are BS because they are not precisely defined. How is a "strong" candle defined? How is an upthrust defined? You need precise mathematical definitions for your rules so that they can be programmed into an algorithm, or perhaps even a spreadsheet.

The lookback period for a moving average does not hardly matter. The main issue is to reduce group delay (ie lag) as much as possible, and take what you get in terms of smoothness of the curve. Zero group delay is ideal, but only comes with noncausal filters. Kalman filtering is an interesting...

If you are going to use MAs, then you should learn to engineer them a bit. The work you want to look at is by John Ehlers. The biggest downside to MAs is group delay, commonly called lag. There are ways a reducing lag, but that typically comes at a cost of reducing attenuation ability.

The whole world was so corrupt at one point in time that God destroyed it with a flood, except for Noah and his family.

There is every reason under the sun as to the why. Trying to find cause and effect for every movement is surely a path to madness.

See attached. Obviously, the assumption of normality is suspect, but you get the basic math.