Search results

  1. P

    Technical Analysis, from a Quant's Perspective

    The absolute level of a stock is the best indicator of the fundamental strength of a business. A company whos stock has risen 50% over a given period is fundamentally in better shape than a company whose stock has dropped 50% over the same period. Of course the "market" can overreact and...
  2. P

    Theoretical value of options

    Since you can't directly solve the Black-Scholes or other option model for volatility, you must use the price that the market is implying for a given contract. Then you can use an algorithm like Newton-Raphson or the Method of Bisection to solve for the root value (within a given error limit.)...
  3. P

    Scumbag specialist about to do time

    Therein lies the problem with the specialist system, they know something before everyone else knows it and can therefore front run you all day long if they choose to.
  4. P

    Technical Analysis, from a Quant's Perspective

    Did he say that fundamental analysis gave that edge or that some hybrid of the two gave the edge? Did he say that it is impossible to have an edge? There is one way and one way only to make a stock go up, and that is to buy it (and vice versa.) Neither TA or fundamentals give 100% accurate...
  5. P

    IB: Update limit prices..

    So what you want is your limit to move up as the bid moves up if you are looking to buy and your limit to move down as the ask moves down if you are looking to sell. Then if there is a retracement of prices, you will hopefully get filled. Is this what you are basically looking for? I don't...
  6. P

    (How To) Hire A Programmer?What Precautions?

    YOU need to first put your ideas down on paper in the form of funtional and design specifications. Then once you find a developer, they will have something with which they can design an appropriate architecture around. Don't forget the legal issues of intellectual property and nondisclosure.
  7. P

    Series 7 Shortage?

    All they are probably interested in is for a retail salesman (i.e. professional liar.) Search around on this site for advice on how to get into a trading position. If you have enough of your own capital, look at a Prop firm like Bright in order to get some training. My guess is that you...
  8. P

    How to avoid drawdown when you increase your position size?

    Exactly, if you have a profitable system on 100 shares, it should be just as profitable in percentage terms with 200 shares or 130 shares. Yes, the absolute dollar swings will be greater when scaled up, but the slope of linear regression curve through the P/L graph should stay the same. Now...
  9. P

    How to avoid drawdown when you increase your position size?

    Since nobody can ever be sure of when or by what magnitude a drawdown will occur, why does it matter if you scale up by 100% or only 30% or any other percentage?
  10. P

    leading Indicators, in before everyone else

    There is one way and one way only, and that is to have opened your position yesterday. There exists nothing under the sun which will predicate the future for you with certainty and consistency.
  11. P

    Implied volatility calculation.

    Here is the method of bisection for finding IV in C++ by Bernt Odegaard. #include <cmath> #include "fin_recipes.h" double option price implied volatility call black scholes bisections(const double& S, const double& K, const double& r, const double& time, const double& option price){...
  12. P

    Market Delta strategies

    By this logic, wouldn't all buying and selling be considered aggressive? All price movement is aggressive. If no one ever raises the current bid or lowers the current offer, then price will never move until a buyer and a seller agree. The only way price can move in a given direction is if...
  13. P

    Volatility

    One thing I don't like about IVolatility's Index nor the CBOE's VIX is that it is fixed at 30 days expiration. Well what if the contract you are looking at has 41 days or 17 days or 4 days etc. Why can't they normalize the data to reflect the number of days left until expiration of the front...
  14. P

    What if I think the Market is totally Random

    Yes, but exactly when the market transitions from trending to nontrending is random, or random enough. Having a strategy for when the market transitions from efficient to inefficient seems to be the key to being profitable over time. Know one can ever consistently predict when these...
  15. P

    How options decay

    Generally, most institutions now use the number of hours until expiration in their pricing models. Like others have mentioned, with ticks at 0.05 and the other variables changing continually, you don't really notice it.
  16. P

    Reversion to the Mean

    If you want a times series series that is highly reverting, look at volatility (implied and historical.) In fact using R/S analysis, volatility is often more random than a gaussian time series, that is the exponent is less than 0.5. Basically, it means that volatility is not fractal, and that...
  17. P

    Think in Odds

    It may go to $20,000 and it may not. Just as your logic dictates, you have no way of knowing. Always sell too soon! If you have a profit, take it. No one knows what the future will bring. And yes, many times the market will go on without you, and you will want to cry. Part of the psychology of...
  18. P

    Zurich Axioms: The Essence of Trading

    Right, Zurich Axioms is not a HOWTO manual, or offers specific technical advise. It should be viewed as a way to approach the markets from a traders perspective. That perspective should shape the way you deal with the technical and physchological aspects of trading.
  19. P

    Zurich Axioms: The Essence of Trading

    If you have never heard of or read them, the Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther is the best advice you will ever receive in regard to your trading. http://neif.org/Zurich_axioms.pdf Max has distilled the essence of what it means to be a trader and presented it in clear and concise fashion.
  20. P

    NYSE Specialists in electronic world???

    That is the essence of the problem with the specialist system, they know something before everyone else knows it. Even if it's only something like 15 seconds, they could still front run you all day long if they wanted to. I'm not so sure that the benefit of the specialist system outweighs the...
Back
Top