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Funny thing is, if he is right he wont be on that job for long

The people of zerohedge are playing with fire. They used to publish private material from Merryl and now they are encouraging pritave copyrighted videos to be spread around

The Yellen speech shows a few things http://www.frbsf.org/news/speeches/2009/0728.html -She is aware of the Rogoff study financial crisis, bernanke and most at the Fed are probably as well. Where they get their rosy forecasts I have no idea -She expects core inflation to below 2% for...

Is suine flu a big deal and will it affect the world most than its currently priced in financial markets?Its possible, the largest university in Sao Paulo(the largest brazilian city, where I live), just announced a 3 week extention in the vacation period due concerns about suine flu, children...

This resembles Feb 2007

ABK is dead money

A trade that with risk reward of 4-1 usually has less than 50% probability(in a efficient market its probability of working would be 20%), so streaks of 5 losses of more should happen quite often even if your edge is intact

Its not easy to manipulate the equilibrium price of liquid markets, look how the fed's efforts to drive treasuries higher endup, as soon as the printing press stops the market does whatever it wants $147 oil happened not because of 'speculators' affecting real players it happened because...

The government needs to consider stock buying as part of retail sales, it would solve this problem pretty quick

its the Peter Schiff school of economics, if it isn't hard and solid its not good for the economy. The US economy will be 'phony' to them until NY is producing shirts and bags in a massive scale

I'm not sure thats clear at all. If you look back at government spending it does correlate to CPI. One of the few people who claims deficits fuel inflation and whose opinion is worth something is John Hussman, hes got a chart in his website. I'm yet to fully understand his theory but the...

Bernanke would say he got lucky and he is no evidence individuals can beat the market

nitro, I'm not sure this is correct. a positive expectancy bet with an percentage edge of 5%(say a coin with 52.5% chance of landing tails) could easly hit heads 6 times in a row, that doesnt mean one a bet the 7th will be tails is a bad bet, one needs to close their eyes and bet

I bet IB's CS will be hearing all day from ET guys yelling about how they are idiots and havent filled their one lot orders yet. 'jennifer, never leave this phone ok?' :p

Roserberg is looking at a 40-50% figure. I suppose some of the difference comes from my 2009 number, I assumed $60 for 2009(Although I dont claim this will be accurate, I'm simply trying to think like the greenshooters). Maybe he is considering Q1 at $10 and Q2 at $14, a $14 in Q3 and $15 in Q4...

I believe it would help in the long-run(at least history suggests that), but in the short-run who knows, the Dow could drop 2k on worries about competition hurting margins

Here's the thing I'm mainly concerned about what will happen, I dont spend much time think about what should happen. What should happen is congress starts free trade with the entire world but I know that is not going to happen so I dont bet on it. As far as March is concerned my argument is...

Heres an argument against you theory of fed hikes in the next 6 months. The fed already publicly commited to keep open their liquidity facilities till Feb 1 2010, they need 'unusual and exigent circunstances' to keep them open. It would be highly usual(and probably illegal) for the fed to hike...

To show some degree of irrationality currently priced in the financial markets, take a look at the Feb ZQ(fed funds futures) contract, it closed at 99.5950, the fronts are expiring at 99.84. If the fed does nothing, that contract will expire at 99.84, this is almost 25bps in profit, so one hike...

How do you know rogers trade successfuly?Ever since he left quantum there is simply NO record of his performance. He is the biggest commodity bull around and claimed to have made money in 2008, one of the the worst collapse in commodity prices in history He already have been caught on tape...