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Hrm.... what I am interested to know is : isn't this true for all recessions and depressions? It is just a different degree of money flow.

I think it will be either 1) not too bad unemployment, bad inflation, weak dollar or.. 2) rise in unemployment, mild inflation, not too weak dollar. Whether it is 1) or 2) will be determined by the fed. If fed cut regardless what import price is telling us, we will have 1), otherwise...

How about US in stagflation. EU will see a slow down. China will balance between raising their currency to fight inflation which will export inflation to US, and slowing growth. Growth of the whole world will be a wash. ( IE, not much changes in commodity prices - recession will hold...

Come on. In 2000, nasdaq was 5000. Company stock jumped a couple hundred % just by announcing that they had a website. AOL, excit@home, pets.com, geocity, idealab, CMGI, netscape, dsl ISP that don't own the line, furniture.com. Bunch of companies with no E in the PE. Bunch of newbie...

Well, I don't agree with Bush a lot, but name calling on air is a little bit too much. I still like Erin though..:)

Well, Chinese local officials has incentive to overstate their economic result for promotion. U.S. wouldn't mind the overstate number since it can use it for tougher stand on various economy issue. The trade deficit number is real though between China and the rest of the world. If this...

What a cock of sh*t? I want teaser rate for my mortgage too, or I want higher CD rate for my saving. How come only losers get the benefits? I don't get it.

The bond market is telling us that money is rushing to t-bill. That means, they think recession will be worldwide, which will hammer commodity price and therefore inflation. That give Ben clear signal to cut rate. All those money rushing to T-bill hold up the dollar. If it is a US only...

I support him, but I am being real about it. Let's say he is elected as the president. I don't expect him to able to disband the FED, disband the IRS and etc...... ...BUT, he should be able to pull the average consent view more to his corner over time if people get to hear what he said...

Not to be on 1 side or the other. China had a military exercise right around thanksgiving. So, they are confused on what to do. The initial delayed response is No, but they reverse the decision later on. Of course, by then it is too late for Kitty hawk as it already set sail to Japan...

Really... in that case, is the wage growth number inflation adjusted too? Any reference?

Correct. So, you know Fed's number can only be skewed on the good side. As of yesterday, Fed said.... growth = 1.8% to 2.5% next year trending lower. inflation = 1.8% to 2.1% next year trending higher but fed predict it will trend lower. So, a couple ticks of revision (afterwards) and...

Let me ask you this. If growth is 2% and inflation is 2.5%, is that a recession? Also, you need to pay tax on that 2%.

As long as US is threatening with real dollar term GDP shrinkage. IE ( Growth - inflation = negative ) It is better to look at commodities or other market with real dollar term GDP growth. Basically, no one wants to invest in a stagflation market. At best, you can play defense there.

You can't buy a country, because a country can make laws to do whatever it likes. Like Venezuela, they want to nationalize oil industry by force. All Exxon, Total...etc. have to leave the country even they have agreements that say otherwise before.

Fed said... "On the growth side, the Fed said it believes that business growth will slow next year, with the gross domestic product (GDP) coming in between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent." "Overall inflation should ebb next year to between a 1.8 percent and 2.1 percent increase. Inflation...

Soon, they will realize that US will do it for them...:) If a combination of slow down and devaluation of dollar won't shrink trade deficit, I don't know what else will. If it doesn't shrink, then Ben will devalue US$ till it shrinks.

Here is what I think. Inflation is here when essential items take over a bigger portion budget of everyday consumers. Aka, it is here when the retailers suck even more air. Home Depot earning only falls ~25%, revenue only a couple % and it is in the middle of the housing sector. Then...

Bottomline, listen to Cramer on the idea behind each buy or sell. Then, if you agree with him, you have to FIND YOUR OWN ENTRY POINT. Sometimes, that entry point never come. Main street is buying on the next day he recommend something. Also, each buy has an exit condition which he...

Well, nothing go down in a straight line, but with the big cloud of consumer spending slowdown hanging over, not worth the risk to go long at these levels.