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@ph1l all very sound advice, thanks a lot!

I guess that the representation comes from the bsm model and does not account for observed IV/skew

I don't play in the us market

@ph1l Using in-sample and out-of-sample data is the classic textbook approach, however, I always wondered if it was really the most appropriate one. Let's start from the assumption that every system works best only during a certain time window. The market evolves with time, opportunities come...

out of curiosity, I checked the youtube channel of this dude. almost 100% prediction accuracy. Even pretending it's true.. why selling the prediction instead of trading the signal?

Excessive curve fitting is anathema to any system developer, however, any system in some respects is dependent on a certain set of parameters. How many bars is the lookback period? How much % is the retracement? What is the profit target? Personally, I try to use adaptive parameters, like a...

usually I enter my first order on the most difficult leg (the one with the widest spread) at a good price. If I get filled, then I try entering the easy leg at mid. If not filled within a couple minutes, I match the offer.

for sure their algorithm works, but probably the web version you are using is just showing you the terminal payoff. You should be able to visualize the profit curve at various points in time and under different volatility levels.

now I can visualize MrMuppet hopelessly shaking his head.. OP, in your chart you are just visualizing a terminal distribution, but by doing so you are leaving out implied volatility and time decay. In reality the payoff won't be that linear.

Make it visual, with an analyzer. ATM call Deep OTM call (in this case, for the same dollar amount you get ~38 calls)

you could do that, but it would not improve your situation, that price difference was already baked in the calls you bought. If you think MSFT won't go up in the near future, best course of action would be simply closing the trade.

for the moment forget about entering the trade. Just consider posting the trade on the forum as an alternative, something to bridge the mental gap between entering and watching from the sideline

why not simply posting here your wannabe trades? if they are indeed good, some community feedback would give you the confidence you need to hit that enter key on the next occasion..

Thanks @Kevin Schmit , this was really the kind of answer I was looking for!

more than catching a falling knife that seems like catching a falling anvil..

Hello there, Since in my particular market I'm getting a haircut no matter if I'm trading bounded or unbounded risk, I'm not that much concerned about the reduction in buying power, and I can get the whole structure up for a slight credit (actually didn't resist the temptation so I just put on...

I was thinking about creating a pseudo-butterfly of sorts by selling an atm straddle in an etf with higher IV and buying a strangle in another etf with lower IV and lower cost, at a 1:2 ratio (1 short per 2 longs). The two etfs are highly correlated (most component stocks are the same...

I work in the manufacturing sector in China. What I see from here: -containers that used to cost 2000 USD now suddenly costs 14000 USD. Consider that then all the other costs (agent fees etc) are calculated as a % of the base container cost. -raw materials sourced locally did not increase much...

I think I should make that tulip mania gif my new desktop image

you might be neutral at inception, but delta changes with spot, so as soon as spot moves the position start accumulating deltas in either direction. And for sure on a long straddle you dont want to be neutral for long time.. and best of luck to you, please dont go all in when starting out with...