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Employees for CBOT? I work at the CBOT. I am not an employee of them so I have no agenda saying something that is a lie. Somebody else please chime in on this or am I just wasting my time trying to explain to him.

Employees for CBOT? I work at the CBOT. I am not an employee of them so I have no agenda saying something that is a lie. Somebody else please chime in on this or am I just wasting my time trying to explain to him.

Trigger you seriously have no idea what you are talking about. I stood next to the 30yr futures pit for the last 4 years and can tell you the 3,000 contracts the exchange says traded in the pit yesterday is exactly right. There is virtually ZERO order flow left in the pit. The only reason the...

Vol has definitely traded lower in the 10yr with nearly all months hanging around 3.50%, pretty sure this is at or near all-time lows. Don't see a reason that it can't go below 3% at some point in long end vol. As for the curve, a few dealers are a bit surprised that the concession ahead of...

My feeling is that dealers will continue this concession into the Refunding remaining steep the curve. They will use the Refunding in May to get a bit closer to flat and maybe even short some curve or outright long the long end. Several dealers were in selling September vol in the 10yr options...

Any of the Chicago interest rate options flow that is done electronically is usually crossed (customer and local) by the same NYC/London broker that begins with an M and ends in Financial. I am sure anyone can guess that one. The complicated spreads are offered on the screen both in Euro$'s...

Hopback made some good points as well. I would agree most of my good trades come from giving up edge to get in (contrary to what most prop shops say to do) and then working the bid or offer to get out. If you can stomach some decent swings take positions into numbers, I do that quite a bit if...

On the financial options side the pit will be around for some time. It is possible to get a liquid market on a 10yr option June-Sep call calendar in about 3 seconds that will be about 50,000 bid and offered on both sides in the pit. This happened today with Countrywide rolling about 50,000...

Sorry for not getting back right away. I ASSUME that most large orders that I described in the previous post are paper when they have a flow to them, especially when those big orders appear to be rushed and not worked to obtain best price levels. Yes, there are some huge locals that can...

Alright, here is my take on things. The difference between this rally and past rallies is that it manifested itself on credit market worries (subprimes) and we saw all spread product go into a huge widening phase and everyone shift quickly into Treasuries. These flows into Treasuries were...

As someone who has watched the 10yr order book non-stop for the last 4 years or so I will try to impart some advice on this subject. First of all, you should really watch the time and sales prints. These are very valuable in a few aspects. It will allow you to see which part of the curve the...

Ditto with el surdo. The implication for bonds is the curve steepening we are seeing (flight to quality effect). On the flip side nothing has changed dramatically in terms of fundamentals. The question to be asked is does this credit market repricing from subprime mortgage blowouts effect...

Ya, I guess if you are marking the position where both spreads settled today that does make sense he is down about 11.2 million. But I think it probably depends more on where he entered into the position in March futures several months ago. My guess is at better levels than the current ones.

Speaking about the FIT spread (5yr vs. 10yr ) someone rolled a monster one from March into June yesterday buying -3.5 in the 5yr calendar 100,000 times in one order and then literally within 1 minute turning and selling the 10yr calendar 60,000 times at Even. Both gave up edge lifting the offer...

At least one of the biggies got hurt for a change today. I think WAMCO had sold around 20,000 June 108 calls on the recent uptick from around 27 to 32 ticks. Today they bought back 20,000 calls at 36 and 37 ticks vs. futures 107-07 and 06.5. Oops, that is too bad. Goldman prop now seems to...

March 106-107 strangle is looking pretty good (worth 23 and they sold 30's and 29's in BIG size) after today's massive failure to make a breakout either way.

Goldman hit today's move right on the money with their short March 106 puts vs. futures from basically a 4.10% vol level. On the close today vol at 3.85% or so. I thought maybe they would have bought back their short futures somewhere around 106-10 to 15 as we have traded there for at least...

They were short the Feb 107 straddle (puts and calls) for the last 3 or 4 weeks. They almost were looking very good as we started trading 106-19 as they had bought back most of their short futures hedges around 106-10 or so in the morning (a guess but lots of volume there). My guess is the...

Yes John. Goldman was actually long around 10,000 on that strike from an old position probably why open interest wasn't up by 50,000. Also had about 20,000 trade outright in the pit from different houses. Flows were so huge in that strike yesterday with 160,000 total trading. I am pretty...

Surprisingly 107 volatility was only bid by about .10% in Feb so they really didn't get hit too hard today. I think they sold however many futures up around 29 to 27.5 to hedge out that gamma (but probably didn't plan on a move this huge today). They sold about 50,000 March 106 puts vs...