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Awakening to the reality is often painful. But my compatriots deserve it.

Low oil is great for Russia in the long term. Gives the chance to people to see reality, which is: prosperity of 2000's was not the economical genius of Putin's team, but plain luck aka bull market in oil and other commodities.

Yes, I realize that, but the reason is my personal experience, which is: things worked until they didn't. Suddenly. :)

One more worry I expressed today on the other resource is: in case with following patterns, which we "just see" and don't know their cause, how do we know if they "stopped working"? How much a draw-down is needed to give up and admit some pattern is no longer valid?

So you agree fundamental information is the basis for successful global macro speculation rather than mathematical modelling?

Doesn't global macro also include FI, FX and short side?

So you would say edges are easier to find there?

What about global macro speculation?

So it's a competition of algos fighting for microscopic structural edges?

So your information is most money made in markets is thanks to mathematical models?

Hmm... Soros? :)

Well, there are two motivational drivers: "away from" and "towards". The best effect is when both are used. So forgetting "away from" may simply be not optimal.

Yes, but he is sort of minority AFAIK.

Thank you very much, gents. Constructive criticism is exactly what I hope for when start such talks. :) RN: You have a point here that before system is correctly applied it's often hard to tell if it's viable. But my point is: if a system is something like NoD mentions often - purely objective...

Social disciplines often are considered "non-scientific". Such is the case with many techniques of psychology as an example. That makes especially hard to distinguish helpful services from fantasies or even scams in these areas. Guess trading is somewhat like that too, since purely scientific...

Yes, of course I am familiar with his works.

Many people I meet who trade are not profitable and tell about the problems they face. Very often the case is they actually lack knowledge on what it's all about. Content of online resources is heavily shifted towards vendors who make things look as easy as buy their stuff (or follow their stuff...

Very true, JT, thanks. Indeed, finding a style which suits one's personality the best is also very important.

Just wrote short theses on what psychology can/can't help with in relation to trading: I want to clarify a few points about when psychology is applicable for traders and when it is not, because realized I never mentioned it before. Psychology will NOT help if a trader doesn’t have solid, well...

Thanks, NoD. Yeah, I remember those times you faded stocks heavily. ;)