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Unless you have a logical reason for stopping trading such as, "you expect market conditions to become unfavorable for your trading method", there is no reason to stop trading. I suspect your fear of giving back profits is caused by your excessive trading size. It's logical to stop trading...

Consider this easy way to trade a trend. Place your second, third, etc. trades only after the previous trade has been moved to breakeven. That way your risk remains constant but your reward becomes openended. You never know how far a trend will persist, however fat tails indicate this is a...

In the past 8 years I haven't seen much change in the markets. However, my perspective has changed dramatically. I used to specialize in a few markets and believed I needed edges to exploit the opportunities. Since I realized I didn't need edges, I've concentrated on developing systems...

I'm sorry. I found posts from this site translated into other languages and lost faith in being able to control the information I wanted to post in the blog. Right now, I plan on trading for the forseeable future and don't plan on doing much posting. I don't want to become the Doyle Brunson of...

The formula I used for including std dev was sample = mean + (z* std dev) where z is the z score randomized and randomly positive or negative. Hope this helps, Alan

He's probably referring to the resets of subprime loans. The subprime reset mess will dry up in June/July with very little in the pipeline. Alt A loans will be with us through at least 2012, however.

I'm looking to buy the GMAC 7.375% bonds today (GOM). At 35% yield-to-maturity I've got to put a few bucks in the bonds. Reminds me of the NYC bond crisis back in the 70's. What a great time to buy.

If trading is your passion noone can stand between you and a trading career. If you've spent all your free time working on trading and preparing yourself for it, then it's your passion. If you've played around, read a couple of books and think it's for you, then it probably isn't. Professional...

For all interested in system development I've opened a blog at: acrary.wordpress.com Nothing there yet, just starting to figure out how to do it. I'm doing a blog so I can edit posts and correct mistakes. I also don't spend much time on the net nowadays and I wanted to write my posts offline...

This is the definition of expectation.

Risk/return in the work I've done is the expected return divided by the expected maximum drawdown. My work has indicated that using a diverse set of systems improves this ratio. I've also found that even though saturation can be reached, further improvement can be achieved by using a treed...

You'd have to use intraday data for classification.

I know this will sound redundant, but if you had classified all the different market conditions you would see the answer. If model A is trend following then look for conditions for model B where countertrend trading is profitable. If A and B exist how about a range bound trading model for model...

I shouldn't be included as a mechanical trader since I've never traded that way. I've done research to create "straw men" trading models. Then I've traded against the models using my market knowledge. Anybody that's traded on a desk knows you don't dare trade mechanically for someone else...

In the original post I said there was a drag because the discussion was on a closed set of trades. Within that set there certainly is a drag effect. In a followup discussion it appeared that my statement had been used as a universal statement about drag, which was untrue. From a practical...

You asked me to reply to your thread. I recieve similar PM's all the time, so here is my reply. What you seem to be asking for is a mentor with a trading method they'd share for some reason. Ideally you'd like to understand the basis for the method and look over the shoulder of the mentor to...

Edge is simply taking advantage of the non-random nature of a market. They are quantifiable and persistent through time. A simple example of a edge in price data is "trend". Every market I've ever checked has a trending tendency beyond random. Some more than others. Incorporating that...

I predict this is my last post on ET forever. Moving into my wife's fantasy compound next week. I have other plans than the internet after today. Acrary....signing off.

Lets say a market has two primary characteristics; trend and bounce off support/resistance on a daytrading basis. The market opens and starts to drop. You enter a short following the trend. The market goes down to a support level, stalls and starts to reverse. The support model kicks in a long...

Don't use a bias. Trade both. Keep capital allocations per-trade small and let the more frequent trading compound the account.