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spike500 I'm not sure I agree, I think that a system is effiecient to the degree that it can exploit inefficiencies in the market. Also I must say that I can close my position to you at a profit and you may sell it again at a profit and we both will win. Then the person who buys from you may...

as nononsense seems to be intimating it depends in what way you describe inefficient. An efficient market seems to mean a random market. No markets are completely random or otherwise nobody would trade them. But most markets have a high degree of randomness otherwise everybody would make...

Wealth-Lab website members have posted about as many short term pullback derivations as you can imagine, when your through running them you can create your own.

Gwac, I have no particular experience in this area to offer, but I do have a simple observation. You appear to be very well prepared financially and you are an experienced fx trader, you are also aware that there is a world of difference between trading for an FI and going solo. I'm sure if...

MOO and LOO orders are simulated because they're not native on NASDAQ

syswizard I should have explained that the calculation was in response to Serge Pustelnik's calcultations. Serge's conclussion was :- "Conclusion: The high winning percentage is usually an indicator that the system has extra constriants placed that produces too many false negatives. The...

Thanks, I should've said I'm interested in big caps, S&P500 etc

Anyone have enough experience with VWAP to estimate what percentage of daily volume can be traded reasonably using VWAP orders? ( no my account is not that big its just a theoretical question :) )

Most people with money in equities markets are not traders they are buy&hold investors. Most B&H investor makes money over the very long time frame they are interested in. Thats because diversified long term B&H is a system with a clear positive expectancy. A dunce couldn't buggar it up, but...

I dont understand what midnight and noon have to do with it. To me the first is just after 12:15am the second just after 12:45am and so on untill the last which is just after 11:45pm. That makes two for each hour twice, or 44.

sorry the calculation above is slightly out it should read ( 0.45 ^ 5 ) x (1000-5+1) = 18.38 times per 1000 trades. and ( 0.15 ^ 5 ) x (100-5+1) = 0.0073 times per 100 trades.

In Wealth-Lab the Buy&Hold blue line represents buying the same amount of every stock which with a watchlist of over 100 stocks does not equate to to trading 10% equity. So I would not be concerned if you dont beat it.

55% win rate with 1000 trades means 45% losers (@ $1 each) chance of a 5$ drawdown (by 5 consecutive losing trades) :- ( 0.45 ^ 5 ) x (1000-5) = 18.36 times per 1000 trades. 85% win rate with 100 trades means 15% losers (@ $1 each) chance of a 5$ drawdown (by 5 consecutive...

Hi InCom, surprised I haven't seen you post here before now.

Many people I know of have reported poor results from pullback buyers for most of the first half of 2005. I have been trading pullbacks for a couple of years. Here are a couple of sudgestions. Since you are using entirely market orders (ie at open and close of market), you may need all that...

ehsmama, you dont need to dynamically create watchlists in Wealth-Lab. If you want to base trading decissions on an indicator just add it as a trading rule and simulate the entire market. For eample ... If SMA(Bar,#Volume,55) > 100000 Then BuyAtLimit etc. Some other idea may take a...

ehsmama thats not bad out of o watchlist of 100 stocks, well done. A couple of thoughts, first unticking perfscripts if your only using the standard script will make it a bit faster. Next, I personally look at several performance indicators but the only one that can be used independently of the...

If you've mined and found 10 systems by looking at 1000 different random relationships (not just optimisations of indicator settings) then you can be 99% sure of your result. I'm saying this half tongue in cheek because when you think about it its a reverse acrary edge test. If your result...

Here's a useful link on confidence interval http://faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/VassarStats.html

Honest answer is there are very few performance metrics you can look at alone, they generally need to be seen as a balance between several. One that can be used independently is Sharpe Ratio (Modified Sharpe Ratio above 3), but I would still want confirmation from several other indicators...