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This poll continues from the thread "Credit Hurricane" in April 2008. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=125664 ****************************** The first answer suggests an increasing likelihood of a prolonged L-shaped recession.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/quelle-surprise-bank-stress-tests.html

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/03/investor-on-private-public-partnership.html Excerpt 1: Say I am SAC Capital. I get to be one of the bidders on bank assets covered by the program. Citi holds $100mm of face-value securities, carried at $80mm. The market bid on these securities...

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/03/investor-on-private-public-partnership.html Excerpt 1: Say I am SAC Capital. I get to be one of the bidders on bank assets covered by the program. Citi holds $100mm of face-value securities, carried at $80mm. The market bid on these securities...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/solvent-insurer-insolvent-insurer/ Wall Street will be eternally grateful to Hank Paulson for his selfless generosity (at the expense of present and future taxpayers).

Maybe... but the Fed's credibility isn't unlimited.

Do you think that Chairman Bernanke is effectively pursuing a martingale strategy to save the banks regardless of what it costs taxpayers?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/02/bad-bank-assets-proposal-worse-than-you.html "So we the taxpayers are going to eat a ton of bank losses that should instead be borne first by stockholders and bondholders. This program should be labeled the Pimco bailout plan, since the giant bond fund...

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crash-course

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/banking-expert-bailout-not-necessary.html "The reason solvent banks have a problem raising capital, or selling themselves to a stronger bank, is that they set their price too high, as did AIG. As an aside, I am glad to see AIG's shareholders getting...

One cannot speak for Jonathan, but imagine how the powers that be of the financial world would feel about this "gesture of goodwill."

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/on-dishonest-sale-of-bailout-bill.html "One of the worst things about TARP is the way that Paulson has wrongfully and mendaciously conflated the last week’s money market panic with the need for TARP. They are two separate issues. As you probably know...

Getting close...

CNBC + Friday afternoon + "surprise" = eagerly awaited? PS Apologies for not including "%" in the poll choices.

What is the probability of a news report on CNBC tomorrow (Friday, Sept 19) afternoon which will have a real impact on market psychology? :)

Buiter's paper: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/Fed-Buiter081608.pdf

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ex-boe-official-skewers-fed-jackson/story.aspx?guid=%7B468AA342-CCBA-4031-A724-B754A790ECD0%7D "Cognitive regulatory capture of the Fed by Wall Street resulted in excess sensitivity of the Fed not just to asset prices (the 'Greenspan-Bernanke put') but...

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFTRMq27TzpU&refer=home "The Fed listens to Wall Street and believes what it hears," Buiter said today in a paper presented to the U.S. central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "This distortion into a partial and often highly...

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2824127720080729

June 9, 2008 "Indeed, although activity during the current quarter is likely to be weak, the risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so." http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20080609a.htm July 15, 2008...