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One technical analyst's view of where we stand vs. a bottom as seen on MarketWatch.com. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/checklist-signs-market-recovery/story.aspx?guid=%7BEFEFC81C%2DA66F%2D4281%2D97EF%2D017C113D9EF2%7D This one focuses on support/resistance levels. volume discussion...

The market is definitely calming a bit but the VIX needs to get under 40 to demonstrate the panic is abating in the market. It's my impression any forthcoming bad news could cause another panic with a VIX over 50. Do you think some negative earnings surprises could cause a return to the lows?

The bottom in 2002 on the SPX was 768 and occurred on October 10, 2002. The high on the VIX that day was 50.48. The VIX went steadily down from there and we have not seen that level on the VIX until this current month we are in. FYI that VIX number was NOT the highest in that bear market...

This is also one of my favorite methods of determining market direction for the short term. When bad news does not cause downturns in the market and when good news is never good enough to cause the correction to end. I believe this is one of the signs we can look at to get a cue.

You will find the monthly performance data going back to 1960 on the SPX in this file. This one in particular should yeild some useful information on what we can expect from here. However, past performance is no guarantee of future returns :D

Good question, I have attached the weekly performance info for the S&P dating all the way back to 1960. The analysis of this data should yeild some very interesting information regarding potential rebounds. I will attach the monthly performance on a separate post.

Nice post - amazing resemblance on the charts.

Can you summarize the Trader Vic analysis as to how he confirms the bottoming formation?

Agreed there is no certainty in identifying a bottom. But there are ways to improve the probabilities of being correct which is what we all do as traders is play the probabilities (our Edge so to speak). The better educated we are on the probabilities of when a bottom has been put in - the...

"This is not a typical bear similar to what has accompanied past recessions. More likely a depression. If you're thinking "dead cat bounce", or "bear market counter", you're likely to do better." Gnome, you'll see I included stats from the 1929 Great Depression and, although I agree the...

Here's some additiional info on the worst weeks and months in the S&P500 dating back to 1960. This should provide some additional good insight as to what is typical in a severe correction. Worst 20 Weekly =============== Date PctChange 10/10/2008 -18.195% 10/23/1987 -12.194%...

I have done some work on the past bear markets in the S&P and their eventual recoveries to get a feel for what MAY happen from here. You will see my work attached in the spreadsheet. From the summaries the typical bear market (top to bottom) lasts about 22 months, goes down about 49% on...

You're missing the point. We only have a favorable administration that does NOT spend like drunken sailors when you have a Congress that is one party and the President of the other party. That's why Reagan worked, that's why Clinton worked and that's one of the big reasons why Bush did not...

Ok all you bozo's that criticized Cramer on this call - all you guys look like idiots now and he looks like the smart guy. That's why he's on television and you guys are not. The S&P broke through the upside of an ascending triangle today and the upside target is now in the neighborhood of...

SEAONALS - DOES IT WORK?? That's not really the question. The question is - can a recurring pattern be traded? The answer is yes. But the pattern does not guarantee anything as 10 coin flips can also land heads in a row. The idea is to wait for a confirmation or use a second technical...

Cramer is not a stupid guy. But I don't necessarily consider him a skilled technician either. When he says we've put in a bottom perhaps the worst he can be criticized for is for being vague. Is it an intermediate bottom or THE bottom?? I happen to feel that we have put in an...

My understanding is that the free demo is not with live data but rather is very old data. How was this historical data period chosen? Is it possible this was a particularly positive period for Best Choice? Who knows - but a real trial lets you use something and then make up your mind. Not...

I'm using a Vosto 1500 laptop 15.4 right now with 2 Gb memory, XP and the Tru Brite screen. It's Ok - not great - not too bad but it has its warts. The worst is that whenever the unit goes to sleep it does not automatically connect wireless when it comes out of sleep mode. Do I have to...

Regarding their reason for wanting to make money teaching - you'd have to ask John Carter I guess. It's certainly a nice additional income stream for them but that's not always the motivation with those kinds of guys. Many times it gives them an opportunity to balance their lives by getting...