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Anderson changed his risk manager 3x and never gave them full authority. Add up FoHF management and long-only new products for distraction...

Release Candidate

What kind of bullshit is that "trading is a zero sum game"???? do you know what is the average short interest on stocks?

which is actually often very true!

It is even worse for Nasdaq then. Present opening auction process was introduced only 2 years ago if I remember right. Before it was just first print of the day.

You have not understood yet. You have to make a difference between the first quote of the day and the opening price given by the market maker!!!

same here. I have 16 instances of TWS build 884 running at the same time. About 1 out of 4 had problems logging or just crashed during the day. Today every single instance started fine.

OK, I understand. It was not really clear from your first post that you were doing a Wald-Wolfowitz test. Then I do agree with your results. It is the fact to find 1332 "runs" that is 3 sigmas and not the difference between up and down events. My fault, I misread you. However, the problem...

just calculate the average return of your returns, then define an "up day" as a day with performance over that average and a "down day" as a day with performance under that average. And have a look at your new z-score. Sorry for you if it hurts... you've just demonstrated that on that time...

Hey guys, wake up. Everyone is forecasting a recession to happen (or has already happened as of December): GS, ML, LB, UBS, etc... I can't remember when this last happened that all majors did agree on economic state. Don't you think a recession (at least a mild one) is already priced in the market?

perhaps not an institution...but think 2 minutes of employees of that same institution...

Actually, if you look at the fed fund futures for Feb08, there is already an expectation for a further 50bps rate cut I guess.

Paulson's HF?

add some political stability on top of that and a kind of unexplainable low interest rate. If I had to bet on one event that probably made modern Switzerland, it's the openness to welcome protestants who were hunted in other european countries. They were traditional hard working good...

They do it by being the world's cleverest investors, speculators, and gamblers. This guy has never put a single foot in Switzerland...

You are quite late on that one. Know your market!!! http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader/openclose/openclose.stm

By the way, I forgot to mention that the science (or the art, call it whatever you want) of managing the "random" part of your trading is called risk management. Edge for your deterministic returns, and risk management for the oscillations. That's all you need.

I do. Although here it's the whole concept of 'random' and 'deterministic' that is mixed. Of course most of market movements are just plain random. However, well hidden inside these movements there is an average, and if you are able to predict this average consistently well, you make money...

A century and a half ago, serious thinkers predicted that our cities would soon be cast into darness. After all, the world was running out of whale oil.

no, you need to call.