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  1. .sigma

    not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

    Who is Brooks?
  2. .sigma

    my divine commedia to optionality

    If anyone is interested, Dr. Data from tastytrade has a link to a monte carlo type simulation of market returns. check it out. Heres an example of how a short ATM put performed in a theoretical $100k account v.s long spot S&P. You can choose between a few other strategies and choices but its...
  3. .sigma

    Finding your bread and butter

    Hey Bobby, glad to see you posting. Loved your journal. Anyway I wanted to ask, currently where do you reside in your journey as far as strategies go? Meaning since condors aren't your bread-and-butter, what is? I'm inclined to trade many butterflies these days. They've become my favorite...
  4. .sigma

    Finding your bread and butter

    For some reason, when I see someone focusing so much on the losses it peaks my interest. Of course --- adversity makes the man! But, if you truly trade and at a high volume, you lose so much its just second nature. You position size and stick to that sizing and systematically sell/buy premium...
  5. .sigma

    BlueWaterSailor: trading journey and journal

    This entire post I'm replying to is the single reason why I decided to create a journal. Thank you for detailing so concisely your current mentation. Props to you sir, and thank you for the knowledge!
  6. .sigma

    my divine commedia to optionality

    That's the thing.. I know somehow vol(var) is the truth. Trading vol is the now and forseeable future and IMO its a solid way to extract alpha. In the myriad of methods I have a hunch forcasting implied.vol with historical is one of those ways. I'm fascinated with the distribution curves of the...
  7. .sigma

    my divine commedia to optionality

    I've been long $UVXY put verticals all last week. (just one lots, as I don't really understand vol-etf's/etn's like I should... but I know somehow the cost of carry each month mathematically decays the instrument? Or something like that lol) Also up on $INTC in the NOV 52.5/55 credit @ $1.06...
  8. .sigma

    my divine commedia to optionality

    And that's exactly what creates legends in this game. You make billions and break billions then misplace billions again. The market will feed you forever and take it right back with no remorse. Niederhoffer has proved himself.
  9. .sigma

    my divine commedia to optionality

    I) FAT TAILS: I-a)- Randomness at the level of the scale of the distribution generates fat tails. (multi-level stochastic vol) I-b)- Model error in all its forms generates fat tails. I-c)- Convexity of probability measures to uncertainty causes fat tails. ii) Law of Large Numbers(weak): operates...
  10. .sigma

    my divine commedia to optionality

    "Market microstructure encourages implied.vol to be biased high. Market makers make the bulk of their money by collecting the bid-ask spread. They will willingly bias their quotes a little too high to protect their business. In essence, they are buying insurance (slight-long vol exposure...
  11. .sigma

    my divine commedia to optionality

    Study the current of currency, the flow of liquidity. The trade desks REACT off market conditions. They flood the markets, what are they trading? If the market is in a decline, what are these trade desks likely to do? As the size of trading desks short vega increases as markets decline, this...
  12. .sigma

    my divine commedia to optionality

    short premo should tend to sell peak gamma and peak vega? ATM has always been the crème de la crème of optionality. It's where the money is at, its telling you straight to your face and you still seem to go in or out moreso! If you're a beast you'll watch higher-order greeks like Volga/vomma...
  13. .sigma

    my divine commedia to optionality

    "In statistical terms, I figure I have traded about 2 million contracts, with an average profit of $70 per contract (after slippage of perhaps $20). This average is approximately 700 standard deviations away from randomness." - VNiederhoffer
  14. .sigma

    my divine commedia to optionality

    starting a journal to see what my thoughts are. I accumulate so much information and notice a ton of it is being utilized to its minimum because I'm not jotting down what I should. so this journal is holding me accountable. lil background: started trading stocks at 19, I'm 29 now trading...
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