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I can't believe I'm posting in this silly semantics thread. If gambling is risking money on an uncertain outcome, trading is gambling. So is opening a business, or buying an index fund. This is closest to my definition, so IMO of course it is gambling. If gambling is risking money in...

Well said. Of course it comes down to what you believe about yourself. If you build up some BS story about the nobility of your profession that you don't even believe, you're going to spend your life feeling like a fraud. If you are comfortable with your choices for reasons that make sense...

I see where you're coming from but I still don't quite agree with it because I think the independent/pit/institutional distinction has a degree of arbitrariness to it. I think it's kind of like saying if all curly red heads with diabetes didn't vote, it wouldn't change the outcome of any...

It may be a fact but you haven't demonstrated any relevance. Well first of all I'm not limiting the discussion to day traders, but simply individual traders not operating out of a pit or an institution. The individual trader is his own client. Perhaps this is part of what annoys the...

I guess I don't really follow why you think a share or contract traded by a pit trader or an institution is essential to the functions of the market for which you acknowledge an inherent value, but a share or contract traded by an individual who happens not to be standing in a pit or associated...

That's simply not true. Take for example futures markets which transfer risk from hedgers to speculators. The speculators are providing a service to the hedgers by assuming risk. Cheers, Fletch

Perhaps. Looks like Seykota has thought a bit about it: http://www.seykota.com/tribe/risk/ William Eckhardt was a mathematics PhD student. Barry Greenstein, arguably the most profitable poker player ever, was a computer science PhD student. There are tons of guys like him: Chris...

Your question is rhetorical. If this is a typical set of signals for your system, why are you posting on ET instead of enjoying your incredibly secure retirement in some exotic locale? I will re-state what I said before: I don't care about win rates. Give me a positive expectancy and...

Tonight I'm doing a few quick calculations on the subject of risk and edge uncertainty. Let's start with risk of ruin. The baseline calculation is very straightforward: for a given strategy, backtest over a reasonable sample of trades, and consider this representative of the "pool" of...

Not a bad day on net, but I gave up some early gains with my S1 trade in the afternoon on my first "unforced error." This afternoon somehow I forgot to kick in my automation before my trading window started. I noticed about 5 minutes late, it was a long trade and the signal had just...

I can give a little overview, sure. Both S1 and S2 are designed to target specific intraday timeframes. S2 catches moves at the open, and S1 catches afternoon trends. I am currently not trading mid-day, but I have a third strategy that I'm developing for that timeframe that looks quite...

Optimax appears to be just a genetic alg optimizer built on top of TS. (BTW, their advertising is disingenuous, comparing exhaustive search to the genetic alg. That's apples to oranges.) It might be a reasonable solution for the OP if his complexity is in the expanse of the parameter set...

S2 long, +$480 (closed) S1 setting up for later today. Fletch

You will get far more dramatic speedup by rewriting your strategy in a compiled language like C++, than by trying to wring more performance out of your hardware. It is a lot of work, but if you are serious about accelerating your calculations, it's the only way to go. By tweaking hardware...

Projection. I think you mean YOU are destroyed psychologically by such things. "I am engineer by training but I consider my poker experience at least as relevant." I have already been through the learning process of emotionally handling the variance associated with small edges. In the...

Right idea, wrong reasons. The buy-ins to those tournaments are real money. There's no less pressure on a tournament player because of a "not real money" factor, at least, not for anybody who has a chance to win. The rising blind structure of tournaments is what forces the preflop play and...

Well this is getting silly. Of course I could do that (in general), but so what? Well this seems to be devolving into the usual "nobody can make predictions in the market" absurdity. This is true in an absolute sense but 100% irrelevant in a practical sense. I believe the market can be...

If you insist. 33. 2-3 hours a day, 1 year. PhD Numerical Analysis, Princeton University. I thought we already covered this. 4 days. Then you ought to be embarrased to have made your comments. I have been a professional modeler for 11 years. The idea that a dynamic model...

You: "I agree that you can win at poker but not with any great consistency." Me: '"Consistency" is a slippery word. Is turning a profit every month without exception for 36 months "consistency"?' You seem to be having a little trouble with context. We were plainly talking about poker...

Not necessarily. I don't want to get too much into poker talk in this journal except as it relates to trading. I'll just say that a good player plays where there is a balance between the size of his edge, the variance of the game structure, and the opportunity to repeatedly exploit his edge so...