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Because if you read anything I wrote, you would see that there is a huge difference. I base entries and exits off of areas that I feel have a high probability of defining a new market characteristic. For example, we've all seen trend lines fail. Often catastrophically. So I place my stop...

Well, I have always fundamentally justified the existence of trends as the imbalance between buyers and sellers. In this sense, trends do exist. Oil went up because there were more buyers than sellers. Financials went down because there were more sellers than buyers. Sometimes these...

I've been a bit busy, but catching up on these posts has been nice. Definitely a good discussion going on ... and no trolls yet (crosses fingers). pneuma, I would be interested in hearing how your nine systems vary. Obviously, that might be too much information to give away, so I...

I fully get where you are coming from. It is better to identify a 90% probability of an event occurring and placing a bet on it with good money management than waiting for it to occur and trying to chase it. I like your term 'probability trap' -- that is exactly what it is. Just gotta watch...

Well, I think the real question becomes, how parsimonious can you make your model while still retaining its statistical significance? Yes, I can find plenty of measurements for volatility, but I might only need one to get me 90% of the way there. If we can identify a vector of market...

Exponential movements and large deviations from long term trends (estimated by moving averages) immediately come to mind as foreboding signals of euphoria. Note that it works much better on the shorting side -- fear is much more powerful than confidence (and its strange cousin, greed)...

Furthermore, how many descriptors do you guys feel are necessary to describe the market condition? Is it a case of 'the more specific, the better'? Certainly, if we could identify the market condition with great accuracy, we could employ niche trading systems that exploit the condition...

So I guess the question then becomes, "with what degree of certainty can be identify the current market condition, and are there any indicators that can help us identify when that condition is changing?" If there are no leading indicators, are there lagging indicators we can use that will...

Given that you know nothing about my trading systems, my position sizing, or my risk management, you seem rather willing to speculate as to how long it would take me to switch systems or how much draw down I will incur. A rather audacious claim, don't you think? This does not require waiting...

People always seem to be looking to develop the holy grail system. They start simple, and make the rules more convoluted as they cover corner cases ... and eventually the thing is a jumbled lump of spaghetti that doesn't even make fundamental sense. So here is a little bone I am throwing out...

Can you please post your forecasting equation and the standard errors of the coefficients please? Thanks. :D

Give incentive for each to do their job. Performance fees go to the manager, fees for assets under management go to the salesman. The salesman will do his best to bring in more cash, and the manager will do his best to perform. Make sure there are special clauses for if the fund stops...

The OP was pretty obviously being facetious... what the hell is wrong with all of you? Or did the joke go over your heads? :confused:

Unfortunately, hard asset based currency has its own set of problems. We need some sort of dynamic system, where we can base our currency on hard assets, but those that actually have economic value. Something like infrastructure, or something like that. But yeah... something will give...

Short term bottom? I like it. Here are some views... 2 year <img src="http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/6926/sp5002yeares4.png"></img> 1 year <img src="http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/271/sp5001yearov7.png"></img> 6 months <img...

<img src="http://img60.imageshack.us/img60/4072/invertedsandpzy3.png"></img> *whistles* Odd how everything seems clearer upside-down...

Ironically, I am doing just the opposite :D

It's all right here in these secret documents ... but you'll never get them ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MELaLQLLMYg

The joke stops being funny when you have to explain it...

I find expected shortfall to be much more telling...