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I was watching CNBC yesterday & Ivy Zelman basically said there is no solution to the supply problem since land prices keep going higher & the builders are required to pay a mitigation fee for building out infrastructure. The fee is upwards of 10-15%. I'm pretty sure this is the reason that OER...

There's something wrong in this market. How can the 10 year bond & equities keep rising together? TLT up 80bps & NASDAQ up 70bps. One of them is wrong. My guess is NQ goes lower.

What a strange warning from Schwab when I tried to buy UUP puts: The underlying security of this option is currently considered Hard to Borrow. If this order results in a short position due to assignment or exercise, a borrow fee may be charged. The current estimated annualized borrow rate is...

Cohen is just another scammer in line of Corzine who robbed traders' money in MF Global so he could bet on a reversion to the mean on European bonds. Wall street breeds these psychopaths.

Spoken like a true permabear. "Earnings were mediocre at best" these companies make more in a quarter than some countries' GDP but yeah they were mediocre. Your ludicrous comparisons are why permabears lose money.

Last 3 election cycle Sept-Dec performance: Year Sept-Oct Nov-Dec 2020 -6.5% +14% (part of this was the Pfizer/mRNA vaccine) 2016 -2.2% +5.2% 2012 -0.1% +0.8 I think 2024 looks a lot like the 2016 cycle.

When will Canadians get rid of the Blackface-In-Chief aka Castro's illegitimate son?

It seems unlikely that SMH will drop another 26% (which equals a 100% move on a 3X ETF). However I do have puts on SMH, FNGS & QQQ.

I've followed these call writing ETFs for a while now and the best total return is on securities that have intraday volatility but not long term volatility. That way you collect huge premium decays on calls but you don't get large NAV decay. Coinbase & Micro Strategy seem to have the highest...

Semiconductors are the new industrials. I think Cramer said that years ago on his show. Semiconductors is the canary in the coal mine. Recession is just a matter of time now. I bet that 140K NFP will be adjusted down to like 70-80K in a few weeks. Next month could be NFP < 50K.

The dividend on BITO is based on the T-bills they own as well as capital gains distribution. BITO was originally a futures-based Bitcoin fund so it has slippage which explains the total return problem vs. IBIT, which owns Bitcoin directly. I think in reality BITO actually owns swaps and not...

The problem with the semiconductor trade is growth is slowing in the economy generally & the massive buying in nVidia H200 cards is slowing. So until they roll out the Blackwell chips it probably goes sideways to lower. I think the AI hardware isn't over, it's just paused.

SMH just went below the 200-day SMA. It could be the bottom or the cycle is over and more collapse is coming.

I think the second half of September is historically the worst performance. I bet VIX goes to 35-40 before a comeback.

BTC seems to follow the macro data recently. Short term it will just follow the flow of data which is looking worse every week. If the NFP tomorrow is < 100K jobs it could swoosh down again. This would seem to indicate the marginal buyer/seller sees BTC as a risk asset. I noticed when the QQQ...

A bad Broadcom report & NFP < 100K could spike the VIX & skyrocket the TLT. That seems like the best bet to me. The real problem is the rotation from tech to non-tech is a net negative for the broad indices.

You should sell them in Japan. For some reason the Japanese still use them.

Career politicians hate the private sector. No surprise progressives have a bad reputation. Even here in the SF bay area the citizenry is getting tired of the progressives.

So the inflation from 1790 --> 1990 was 4.13% per year. I thought it would have been a lot higher. I think the modern greenbacks are different than the the pre-Reconstruction bills.

Its amazing the German public voted for an East German politician like Merkel to lead the country. I guess the public already forgot about the STASI psychos. The best movie about them is the 2006 German film Das Leben der Anderen.