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You are so crypto. :D

I'm surprised Zimbabwe hasn't spotted this opportunity. They can certainly outdo Honduras and El Salvador in terms of a basket case country.

At least you didn't buy near the top of the bull market at $69k. Even if the bottom isn't in, you've avoided -65%. :)

Past performance is not a guide to the future. IE. the last bull market may not be a guide to the next one. My view is, if you want to invest in crypto, stick to BTC (or ETH) and don't be greedy chasing the latest fad.

My take from this thread: 1) trading is gambling (betting) 2) so all you can do is try and put the odds a bit in your favour 3) the most important thing to focus on is the entry (get this right and you're more likely to win; get it wrong and you're more likely to lose) 4) a good entry is one...

I've heard it said that 95% of all traders fail. Probably only a very tiny % are highly profitable. Are the top traders successful because: a) they have some innate ability; they just happen to be wired to be good at it? or b) they've had an extraordinary run of years of good luck? or c)...

When the OP started this thread, over 13 years ago, I doubt they expected it to run to more than a few dozen posts. And to think it all began with such a simple question: What is the obvious pre-requisite to trading any market?

https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-tourists-have-been-purged-only-hodlers-remain-glassnode-202207051032

Big down day today. Final capitulation before lift off, or bear market incoming...

Not just with crypto. Meme stocks, tech, Robinhood, you name it. Everything in recent years has been get rich quick gambling. It's what happens in the late stage of every bull market. It's all unraveling now though.

I doubt many investors could stick with a system that required them to exit after a 35% drop. :D

But buy & hold has done pretty well, with zero effort, especially when you consider it's just suffered a 70% drawdown. That $73,000 would have been $250,000 back in November. Don't get me wrong, I'm not against trading, I just think market timing is dangerous in the wrong hands. Your average...

Only backtesting (Monte Carlo) would reveal whether that would have consistently beaten buy & hold. And it would have to have beaten buy & hold by a wide margin (or at least substantially reduced drawdowns) for it to be even worth the bother. And there's always the risk that it underperforms...

Yes but probably only for good traders. It would be interesting to know these numbers: a) % of Bitcoin traders who end up losing money (negative PnL) b) % of Bitcoin traders who have a positive PnL c) % of Bitcoin traders who beat buy & hold I'm guessing even (b) is small, and I bet (c) is tiny.

It may be possible but it would be far from easy. Starting in 2015, when BTC was around $200, you'd need to achieve 100x (10,000%) to even match HODL @ $20k, and that's including the current 70% drawdown. https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg2920ztgCzl And before anyone points out...

Not sure how easy that is with Bitcoin, when 20% drawdowns are noise and 30% is invariably just a pullback. It would be hard to avoid getting whipsawed to hell.

The big reset. The collapse of USD. It's always just around the corner. One day it almost certainly will happen but there's just the little matter of timing... Most of the old gold bug crowd probably won't be around to see it. There seems to be a similar mindset among the Bitcoin devotees.

Measured in %drawdown, there have been several BTC bear markets worse than this one. Of course, this one may not be over yet...