Diode, these statements are incorrect:
"It's fairly well known that trend-following works in most markets... with the notable exception of equities"
google columbine to see quite a bit of work on mid term momentum in equities. . .
" (and equity indexes)."
goto www.fundadvice.com for...
as far as stocks, there are trendfollowing factors that are predictive of stock returns....and of course factors that are inversely predictive...
see haugens books "the new finance" and "the inefficient stock market"....also the blackstar paper referenced earlier. . .
surfer: answer is....it depends.
adding a managed futures allocation to your portfolio improves the risk adjusted returns for lots of reasons.
trendfollowing applied to indices on a lengthly time frame (see siegels work in stocks for the long run for a test back to 1900 with the DJIA, or...
the same academic paper i reference a few pages ago that im sure no one read.
also check out (i think) the hand book of alternative assets which describes why the same logic applies to the GSCI. . .
i still find it interesting that no one seems to realize that over half of the returns from trendfollowing come from the cash sitting in T-Bills. . .and then another 25% from rebalancing gains. . .
only about 25% comes from the actual trendfollowing. . .
**the reason this strategy has done...
pps. if i were to invest in managed futures trendfollowing, i would use the mt lucas index. i bet it beats most of the managers. . .
if you look at some of the academic papers on the subject, the majority of the returns come from the collateral yield. . .that point is often overlooked, and...
ps. also might want to check out all the articles on merriman capital managements website that discuss trendfollowing vs buy and hold for a number of asset classes.
www.fundadvice.com
âWhich is Better, Buy and Hold or Market Timing?â, February 13, 1998
âDesigning a Market Timing...
i have plently of fundamental data.
i was curious where your friend got his data, as some of the databases suffer from survivorship and look ahead bias. . .