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Just finished fooled by randomness and taleb is a god. I want to focus more energy on developing tail risk strategies in the short term. How should one approach such a task?

If you only had access to EOD OHLC prices... how could you derive value? Or if you had a data set for an entire trading day with1/5/10 min bars, how can you determine highs and lows for the day with just the data set?

lol sorry berrrroooooo i meant eod

Is lipper the only ones who provide this or are there other sources for this info?

Can the variance be derived from OHLC or does one must use 1/5/10 min bars?

lol I see the difference but thats not what i;m referring to Let says NQ closed at 2860... Open ats 2858.... how can you derive odds in the opening on that or Lets says Nq closes at 2860, opens at 2870 and is at 2895 by 3 oclock, how would you trade it going into the close see...

Maverick, Thank you! Can you give me some examples in trading specifically on how conditional probability applies (in a certain situation)

That make sense But how can you make a comparison between people comparing horse stats and trading stats...?

I get it there both forms of gambling but can someone give me some direct examples of how the two are similar

On what time frame(s) do you use to determine the ORB? Whats your personal criteria for entering into an ORB?

Even from IB>?

Whats the difference between using the two in a backtest...? I'm not a micro scalper nor am I an HFT. I simply look to make anywhere between 1-2 trades a day (Open and Close - Sometimes the afternoon) I'm a newb when it comes to data analysis but I was wondering if someone could tell me...

The Y axis of the chart represents price... The X represents Time... Generally raw tick data is aggregated by time What other forms of data are there for one to analyze in regards to substituting another variable instead of time?

Nikkei or Yen? American Junk Bonds? How do you monitor them?

Post your trades when you have time, i'd like to see your reason for entry on them

I like apple a lot but unfortunately theres a lot more to worry about than products for the company. You need to factor in the economy as a whole. What can happen before the price goes up? a shit ton of macro events that kind of stack the odds in favour of bears. The buybacks cool for...

Why did you take a long in apple...?

Whats your logic for this?

and within fundamental.... There's relative value?

If apple breaks 405 right now, its bullish for the rest of the day until earnings come out - Biggest point of resistant on the NQ from 2830 is 2850 if it can make this break. Tick breadth is painting a bearish picture