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Yesterday's spike on HG N/U was something to witness.

Actually, my comment was stupid. If some big chocolate makers have some stocks right now, they should sell it, not grind it when the added value of chocolate is relatively low.

Just a reflexion. The market seems to be pushing up again because of the resilience of grindings, but I am not sure the beans in question have been bought after february. If those are stocks from last year or whatever, of course they will grind them now. And the retail prices of chocolate aren't...

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/25577137/cocoa-prices-surge-as-global-cocoa-demand-remaina-resilient "Bloomberg reported last Thursday that the Ghana Cocoa Board is negotiating with major cocoa traders to postpone the delivery of at least 150,000 MT to 250,000 MT of cocoa until next season...

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/westafrica-cocoa/

https://www.ft.com/content/c847251c-0940-46b3-899c-5e38e720d484

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/african-cocoa-plants-run-out-beans-global-chocolate-crisis-deepens-2024-03-13/

This didn't age well...LOL. Actually, this cocoa situation is exceptional. Some producers in Ivory Coast or Ghana won't be able to ship the amounts contracted, the deficit is growing and we are perhaps at the beginning of a multi year run of really low inventories.

Yes, the balance sheets are heavy for ags lately. It can go lower.

Yes. Natural gas has been a good moneymaker for me throughout the years.

Bearish events occur on commodities ( Mississipi water levels making exports at the gulf impossible, refinery shutdowns during hurricanes that make crude stocks go upward...), but daily moves tend to be smaller. Nonetheless, volatility on the downside exists after a sustained bull market, when...

I went long NG H/J thinking we are still in the 2000s or 2010s and G/H is just a precursor to what will happen on H/J. But with global warming, march is hotter and G/H is becoming the widowmaker. You can forget historical datas on those 2 spreads, they aren't relevant anymore IMO.

I have traded with OpenECry, TradeStation( RJO ), Crossland LLC( now Wedbush ), IB, Advantage and Phillip Capital. I like IB for market access in general, but my favorite futures FCM is probably Advantage.

Not that bad of an idea but we need a catalyst for the curve to plunge : ICE certified stocks increase, cocoa grindings down, good news from Ivory coast or Ghana...Never trade on seasonals only;)

I have to say that Trafigura toxic waste scandal in Africa was perhaps the ugliest I read. Rich fiscal evasion is nowhere near the same category in my mind. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-10735255

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-07/traders-move-coffee-around-to-hide-aging-beans-for-the-last-time#xj4y7vzkg

I was looking for long raw / short white for a long time but never pulled the trigger. Now it is too late. White sugar is really strong into the end of the year/ beginning of the next.

Hello George, my advice is only pay if you are really impressed with one source of info, otherwise just google and go to your favourite free websites. Here are a few of mine for ag: https://www.agweb.com/agritalk https://www.barchart.com/...

Perhaps some particular location went nuts on top of that. You can have Waha trading negative while New England is at 16$

I assume he was talking about what occured in july and august of 2020, 4-5 months after covid started.