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    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Crude Oil is anything but flat with the sharp decline occurring immediately...This chart could be inverted with the low and reversal at 2100. Since I won't oppose the 3x3 it always keeps me out of trouble.
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    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Crude Oil 30Min 3x3 for 12/21/2020...Overall looks kind of flat:
  3. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Here is one of my favorite markets to position trade...Coffee! I scaled the chart to get hopefully a better view of the data points.
  4. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Monday 12/21/2020 ES 30Min 3x3 Chart Forecast
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    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    I go back and forth on placing the polynomial and regression slope with the data. As you know it's just a "fit", but there times that it is extremely accurate and also can provide you information at the inflection points of the peaks and valleys of the polynomial.
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    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Gold Daily for the next 3 months...Next weekend after the Christmas Holiday I will begin doing the weekly forecast for the entire year (2021) along with the new Daily forecast for the new year first quarter. I will continue with the intraday on a daily basis.
  7. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Here is what the 3x3 forecast on the ES Daily would have looked like if was done at the end of September. Keep in mind the 3x3 is displaced by 3 days. Even with those considerations this can followed with a simple moving average or the displaced 3x3 moving average for entries and exits. You have...
  8. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Two components were removed to do the 3X3 forecast and it made remarkable improvements. So any of the previous charts before the 3X3 forecast can be disregarded. Also the forecast does not measure magnitude, sometimes it shows the magnitude, other times it will not at all but that does not take...
  9. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Here is the forecast that was generated going back to the 1st week of 2020:
  10. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    The Actual 3X3 Forecast with the Polynomial mirrored the actual Price Chart for the entire day! While many were wrapping up their day thinking about the weekend look at what happened after the 1530 30min bar. Enjoy your weekend...There's more to come
  11. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Actual 3x3 Forecast With Polynomial for 12/18/2020:
  12. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Here is the actual forecast and 3x3 Polynomial...Notice how the changes in the direction of the polynomial were very close to the change in direction of price in the market.
  13. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Here is the chart for Friday 12/18/2020...Looks like a potential trade happening right now
  14. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    The market is too indecisive today to take on any more trades.
  15. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Okay they shook everyone out to take it back up...I felt like it was worth buying again since the market went back above the 5Min and 30Min 3x3. That was a mistake. I should have never bought it since that was temporary and they did not go and take out the polynomial peak Price High. Not afraid...
  16. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Here is the result of the boring long...and a new short entry at 3610.50...The reason why for the short is because they could not go and take out the polynomial peak Price High at 0630. New buy stop for the sell is 3612.25, exactly what was the net $175 in buy.
  17. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Stop @3610.75
  18. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Since this market today has struggled to gain much momentum in either direction I would place a break even stop at 3709.25 to cover any costs. Hitting a 10 point target may not be easy but we are going in the right direction at this time.
  19. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Waited patiently...Now this could be good until the close...At this point your stop is at 3606.50. Minimum 10 point target
  20. I

    Data Modeling and Forecasting Swings

    Interesting how this was played, but not out of the ordinary. Rallied it up (on the Noon 5Min bar) to the 30Min 3x3 then sold it. Can it still go higher sure but what will I use to confirm, the 3x3. Unless both 5Min and 30Min 3x3 are broken best not to be long and stay with the trend.
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