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are you guys still posting to this thread? well i didn't miss a lot over the last couple of days, just want to say one or two things. first, if it is obvious to all how a newbie economist/wannabe trader can be so pigheaded, then you haven't seen anything, how about a tenured professor with...

vladi: for your enlightment i have a PhD from a top ten university, and i have sat in classes taught by nobel prizes. as far as i know the only finance professor driving a jaguar was robert merton, but i guess he had to sell it after ltcm. so you're giving the "Myron Scholes" treatment to the...

C'mon let's be realist let's not glorify the academic lifestyle. They are paid to sit everyday through seminars so boring they would drive me to suicide. They play their vicious politics for what? for getting and office here and not there? to get a position in committee X and not Y? Normal...

Well I think that the trick is not thinking in terms of returns. Trading size is limited by the market you are trading in, so you can only have an idea how much money your strategy can make by trading it. Suppose you can extract 20 million a year reliably trading ES with 500K margin. In terms...

Yeah right let's shrink the SEC until it disappears. Nobody is proposing to raise taxes Elite, what we are discussing is: if it's a good decision to LOWER taxes in the current situation: higher expected spending due to war against terrorism. Ask any old bond trader in Goldman Sachs if he likes...

I do agree that markets are not completely inefficient, that there are restrictions to size, that if you're successful and if just one other person catches up with what you're doing they will start to piggyback you etc etc, and i'm not saying that extracting money from the market (analyzing past...

MADison: thanks

vladiator: the attachment is not working. yes i have read several of his papers. i find them illogical and unscientific: Ex. 1 "I can't prove that God exists. Therefore God doesn't exist." Ex.2 "I can't prove that I can make money analyzing past prices. Therefore nobody can't. And...

I have read this guy. He computes some correlations. some regressions. some r-squared's. he finds nothing. therefore markets are efficient. right. do you call this scientific?

It's correct that the average finance major would lose his a$$ trading, but a scientist shouldn't think that way about what to teach... the earth is round but let's teach people it's flat so they have no trouble using a map... newtonian physics is flawed but why worry with relativity when most...

Actually there are some people trading the FAILURE of well known trading patterns e.g. head and shoulders. This contradicts the self-fulfilling prophecy theory. But it's important to see what the crowd is doing. The crowd is right except at turning points. No self-fulfilling prophecy at turning...

Very good, trdrmac I agree, that bit about tax cuts during Ray-gun should make people wake up and stop dreaming. I agree that taxes overall will be about the same and the economy will not get much worse (or better). What I have observed is some kind of snobbish newly rich yuppie attitude in...

Pretty weird that a republican is not concerned about public debt growing out of control, but it confirms my suspicions. You cannot refinance government debt without limit... you want the US economy to become like Brazil or Argentina?? Republicans used to be the champions of economic...

Sure, this is about cryptography. Without cryptography, the internet doesn't have any commercial value. Current cryptographic algorithms/methods rely on prime numbers: they are based on the premise that the factorization of big numbers is an impossible task given current technology, so what...

Yeah, I'm worried too about that, I read the other day that some indians guys got some improved primality test that could lead to a solution to the factorization problem. If these guys were more greedy and entrepreneurial, they could own the internet in a few years.

Very good point, but bonds have to be paid back some day too... with taxes....

What democrats say or think is irrelevant, it's what Republicans do what matters in the next two years, they have the majority. And, daniel_m yes, the democrats are more anti-deficit than republicans these days. This government received a surplus, not one year passed and we are now back in a...

Very good point, but it's still superficial and reeks of hope rather than fact. The numbers don't match. We all know that the only way of reducing a deficit AND lowering taxes is reducing spending (the waste). The only problem is, I haven't heard anybody in Washington advocating an OVERALL...

Very interesting and thoughtful but we are talking about the stock market.

balda: hey genius, we are talking about fiscal policy... taxes, spending, federal budget... do you know what these are?