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@Straitjacket The real price is... the current price. Because any holder of BTC can convert back to real USD with the click of a button. This happens to the tune of hundreds of millions per day. So if BTC was over-valued compared to USD; we would see net out-flows bringing the price back to...

Ha, your enthusiasm is going to make me get more NFTs. I wonder if I should just allocate capital over time into a new project that manages to get off the ground into single digit ETH range every few months. It's a weird spot because I can't just max out my allocation all at once like for long...

IMO Madoff conducting internal fraud is a little different than crypto where they are competitively traded in a free market by a lot of different firms and entities. Blockchain is public. You know what you are getting when you convert your USD into crypto. The information about USDT is known...

@NoahA USDT flows into BTC isn't a one-way street. Anyone holding BTC can convert back into USD. So the current price of BTC in dollars is the market consensus of value. If BTC was clearly over-valued to a majority of market participants we would see continuous outflows bringing the price...

Yeah, I hear what you are saying. Mindless bullishness on crypto isn’t helpful. There is a risk here. They are clearly using fractional reserve system, that is a known fact by the market and is being discounted. As currencies get more mature they can move from full reserve (probably always...

Risk with stable coin pegs is probably the biggest concern I came across when learning about crypto. I like the tech, I am really confident that we will see what increasing adoption, risks/barriers to entry will slowly get removed so inflows from less tech-savvy investors will continue...

I was reading about Axie Infinity a few days back, after I saw their governance coin somewhere. It's a pokemon knock-off where you breed and battles axies. You need to buy axies to start playing and after the recent player inflows a beginner team costs around 0.3 ETH. Daily play nets the game...

I am mainly in ETH, have a smaller BTC position because it will get legacy status as a crypto commodity; but shouldn't hold the top market cap spot forever. And very small allocations to a handful of the other larger alternates like SOL, DOT, ADA, etc. At present I have been approaching the...

Yeah, when first thinking about NFT's, applications to games was one of the first things I thought of. I am not living and breathing this stuff so I really only learn about things when others mention or they start rising to the top of the short-term trading volume rankings. If I heard about...

Yeah, I was a little aggressive on the bid but I did rest my orders and got hit eventually. Interesting to watch how a hyper illiquid market moves. Seems like the most accurate mark is a little skewed toward the best ask rather than the midpoint of the spread. You can almost see the sentiment...

I bought three curio cards for ~15 ETH. That’s the project that was easiest for me to understand since it has ties to the traditional concept of art, and the project is so early in the NFT space. A little easier to connect to for me over the pure meme ones like Bored Apes, and as a less tech...

Dorie, was the 100K per put all invested in the SPY as well? Is there an easy way you can pull up the realized sharpe ratio from inception to the end of 2019 on your portfolio? Thanks.

Iron Condors make a lot more sense for retail to trade. Zero chance of blow-up or even being unfavorably forced out of a position if you size your max loss : capital properly. They will also have more realistic returns and help to understand vol space better, not misleadingly high ones like...

If we're talking 20 year horizon, one of the longer term barrier I have with allocating higher % of my capital to crypto is that it wasn't initially apparent what I can do with my currency. I think seeing additional in-flows into the space for several more years is likely, but mature...

The market maker fills your strangle simultaneously most of the time. He is buying it for the credit you receive. Unless you are hitting a resting order. Suppose that’s your prerogative to dismiss theory and trying to understand market dynamics but I’ve always found it helpful to think about...

You are selling strangles because you think they are priced above fair value, which means you are expecting to make money over time doing this. Do you think a counterparty is willing to overpay (vs. fair value) for the strangle you are selling most of the time when there is no news, but they...

The math doesn’t apply as well for the approximation out on the wings. Regardless, when the option’s delta changes so does your probability of ITM expiry. The specific delta at a random point in the past has no bearing on future price movement. You talk like since you sold a 5 delta put, if...

I used some existing code with an API to pull price data for a handful of the larger coins this morning and I was fiddling around with it. They only had data since late 2018. But I was surprised to see that the sharpe ratio on a long diversified basket was only ~1.2. A traditional portfolio...

Disagree with the above advice. Don’t have faith in delta. That is non-sensical. Delta is a measure of the positions sensitivity to spot price change, that is all. A -15% gap against you on some freak news or stock dilution can always happen regardless of what delta you opened your position...

Rob, I’ve seen mentioned a few times now in papers about absolute momentum signals, where the most recent month is excluded for a cleaner signal and/or to try to avoid a mean-reversion effect that occurs on shorter term horizons. Have you ever tested t-30 / lookback vs the standard t0 /...