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    What do you tell your friends who don't have a clue...

    True. That $3500 is his 'crying fee' - where your friend gets to whine and complain to his broker when his investments are not doing well. Consider it equivalent to unlicensed pyschiatric work. I'm going to guess that next year, the 5 stocks that he should be invested in will all change -...
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    why do funds perform so poorly?

    1. Thank you for not flaming, particularly since you do not agree with me. That is a mark of gentility, which is one of the commodities in shortest supply around here. 2. Yes, my division of capital does satisfy my primary goals at this time in my life, number one, two, and three ofwhich is...
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    Stock Index w/ no risk?

    I would speak to a few advisors & get some other opinions before following that advice. IMHO, its likely that both short term interest rates keep rising, and then long term follow. The "safe" investments are typically those where you give up your upside in return for some additional...
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    black friday

    I bought small today at day's end and am thinking about buying small to medium tomorrow, particularly if it plunges on open and retraces some in afternoon. Still haven't committed my big nut but some of these directional options plays are starting to look really really interesting. I think...
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    black friday

    rats. you beat me out on starting this one. Feels awfully soft though. I want to buy but I just can't.... PPT where are you! Save us! :D
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    why do funds perform so poorly?

    Don't be so quick to knock portfolio rebalancing. While I am leery of its long term implications in an uncertain world (i.e. what has worked for the last 70 years post depression may not work in the future), you must admit that winning a nobel prize for something (MPT) does at least suggest...
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    why do funds perform so poorly?

    Think about it from the perspective of a fund manager and fund house to understand why all funds lag the indexes and there is relatively little variance between funds in their respective asset class. The fund manager is evaluated on performance relative to whatever industry index is used...
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    Not so easy.

    Agreed that retail FX on huge margin is definately akin to bucket shops of yore, and that quotes can be 'funny' if the dealer is using that method to make his profit. However, you DON'T need to trade at maximum leverage. That's your decision, and if you do so to "maximize your returns" and...
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    short EUR/USD...

    I read somewhat less into the RSI than maybe I should... mostly looking for divergence, etc... hadn't really thought of that.
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    short EUR/USD...

    Ultimate target 1.1000 if you believe in interest rate fundamentals and the chart (see below). I'm looking at this short term double bottom at 1.1950ish. Not sure if the market respects it and heads up again b4 dropping, or disregards it, as it is a bit of a weak pattern. Would prefer to...
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    Going for the gold - hedge against the apocalypse

    in mild inflation, debt doesn't matter because the risk premium covers inflation. in moderate inflation, having fixed debt is great because you pay off with cheap money. in marked (hyper) inflation, you can pay off your debts immediatley with cheap money but since money is worthless, you're...
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    EUR/JPY Cross

    Not for nothing, but is it obvious to anyone else that while EUR/USD has been piddling around 1.20 this thing has been cycling around 136.50 since july until it just broke out on the upside through major resistance at 138 a few days ago? Technically, I think the cross' target is 140.5 or...
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    Inflation BLOWOUT!

    Current money manager dogma states that you need the equity component of your portfolio to outpace inflation's effects (as opposed to maintaining your $ in bonds, guvvies). If there is consistent inflation that spreads over into wages it will probably skew earnings and pump up equity levels...
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    Dow 40K?

    Actually, Baby boomer wealth will pass to Generation Y (the 'joiners') who are significantly LESS savvy than Gen X (internet IPO's, etc...). The Y'ers will certainly be fresh meat for the grinder. The X'ers are too much in debt to do anything but pay it, so don't count on them. Although they...
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    What does Snow smoke and where can I get some?

    Didn't we say the same thing to the Japanese back in the 80's? I think back then it had about the same effect.
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    Inflation BLOWOUT!

    This keeps me up at night too. But it seems that the TPTB won't permit that, so expect any sort of silly fiscal policy that is inflationary or increase in money supply to avoid that situation. Bernake's 'helicopter speech' pretty much seals the deal for me. While I haven't really...
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    Delphi bankrupted !!!

    best time to have shorted gm was at 36. Bit late now.
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    WMT - @ a six year low

    I've also been looking at this with some interest. On my charts (sorry, can't get across yet - too lazy to upload), 9/16 confirmed a new low through the down channel which has been followed from high in 3/04 (look at weekly chart). Low end of the down channel was $44.50. So now it is...
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    Boondoggle upon Boondoggle

    Couldn't believe this blurb from CNN.com New Orleans will lay off 3,000 city workers -- about half the workforce -- because of financial constraints caused by Hurricane Katrina, Mayor Ray Nagin said Tuesday. Citing a loss of city revenue after the storm, Nagin said the city for weeks had...
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    Key Week for EURUSD Traders

    Oh yeah. Buffet put in a stop with citi london at 1.1675. 'I say old chap. If Eur/USD hits 1.1675, would you mind buying about 10 billion USD for me? Try to get that within, say five pips if you can. TKU TTFN.' Betcha gates front runs him with a stop at 1.1695. Poor warren shouldn't...
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