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  1. M

    Options profit/loss vs probability and the rewards

    Thanks again and your reply is the proof that I need to study a lot more before I even think about putting real money at risk.
  2. M

    Options profit/loss vs probability and the rewards

    You are 100% correct, I have no proof.
  3. M

    Options profit/loss vs probability and the rewards

    In ToS the fill price is de middle middel between Bid/Ask, I think. I'm testing with very liquid high volume options/stocks like AAPL and there is not a wide spread. Do you know the difference with Interactie Brokers? Is their fill more to the Bid or Ask side of the price range?
  4. M

    Options profit/loss vs probability and the rewards

    The "risk" I use is the probability that is calculated for options. When the probability for an option strike price is 80% of expiring out of the money, I assume the probability (risk) of expiring in the money is 20%.
  5. M

    Options profit/loss vs probability and the rewards

    Thanks. The probability calculations for options are widely used. Do you advise to not use them when deciding that strike price to trade?
  6. M

    Options profit/loss vs probability and the rewards

    Thanks for your reaction. I made the calculation for the AAPL put credit spread with strikes 134/133 (27.5), 135/134 (30,0), 136/135 (32,0), 137/136 (35,1), 138/137 (38,5) and for the at the money 146/145 (51,0), and the closer I get to the current stock price, the higher number I get from your...
  7. M

    Options profit/loss vs probability and the rewards

    I’m new to trading and only paper trade and learn on Thinkorswim. I’m interested in put credit spreads (out of the money) and these trades is what I am testing and learning. The following numbers are for the put credit spread of AAPL September 3 2021, with the stock trading at about $ 145...
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