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Inflation is caused either by supply disruption or over printing of money. Assuming supply is the same as pre-covid, how can you print so much money without causing inflation? A large part of US debt is short-term, raising rate does have an immediate impact.

I don't believe Fed can contain inflation by raising rate alone. They can't raise rate too high, due to the massive debt owned by US government. QE since 2020 added $5T, a quarter of GDP, to the economy. Inflation can't come down unless that money is drained out...

These are the numbers from the article: ----------bottom 2nd 20% middle 20% earnings 6,941 31,811 66,453 income 48,806 50,492 61,350 I can believe the numbers. How can the bottom 20% and the 2nd bottom 20% get so much money from the government?

I just can't believe the bear market that follows a decade long bull market created by QE only lasts 6 months.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm Fed has injected nearly 5T into the economy since 2020, which is a quarter of GDP. There is still a long way to go to tame inflation.

I mean causing damage on Russian economy.

If US and EU don't have trade deficit, Russia can still sell oil to some countries in exchange for the stuff they produce, but can't get hard currency to buy high tech products from western countries. Trade surplus/deficit matters.

I don't think it will work without new trade war with China. Even if US and EU avoid Russian oil, China can buy it using trade surplus with US unless US could eliminate trade deficit with China.

I don't see any possibility Europe can get rid of energy imports from Russia in the near future. It takes years to build nuclear power plants or lay new pipelines.

It's up to Europe to decide whether to impose oil embargo on Russia. Economic sanction doesn't work as long as Europe continues to buy oil from Russia. The following is from the article...

Could someone explain why Russia didn't invade during Trump presidency?

I need to make a correction. What the government has done so far is giving free money to the unemployed(poor) AND creating asset bubble(for the rich).

If the virus is here to stay, structural change of the economy is needed to accommodate it: 1. Leisure and hospitality industry should be scaled down. 2. Raise tariff on Chinese imports and move factories home. Displaced service workers can work in these factories. What the government has done...

The worst case scenario is covid variants keep coming and the new vaccine is always a few months behind the new variant. You always have the risk of catching the new virus. This is going to have an impact on the economy. What would the Fed do in this case? If they QE forever, US would become the...

I am a bit surprised Powell wants to speed up tapering. What would he do if end of QE plus omicron variant send the economy into recession?

I always have this question in my mind. If Treasury debt buyers decide they won't buy any more unless they are paid 5% interest, what would the Fed do without QE?

I don't think Fed can afford a high interest rate to fight inflation. They can raise bank reserve requirement to reduce money supply. Recession is inevitable when money supply shrinks.

I am wondering how Fed can suppress long term interest rate after QE stops. Fed fund rate is short term rate which can influence but not determine long term rate. Will bond crash once QE stops?

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If central banks don't want to lose reserve currency status, they have to stop QE and 0 rate at some point. Otherwise USD & EUR would be replaced by gold as reserve. Recession can happen immediately when ultra easy monetary policy ends. This will be the first recession in recent history for...