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you statement that “No one can predict with certainty” is a truism and doesn’t discount the ability to predict volatility or direction. I’m not sure why you stated. So you are saying, that some people can predict volatility with enough predictive power that they can develop alpha that can...

actually most do know the difference: you can buy options on Tesla in your robinhood account. You can’t buy futures on Tesla.

how many young smart guys ruined their lives playing online poker in the mid 2000s!

there must be a nuance that makes your two seemingly contradictory paragraphs true. 1. no one can have an edge in options because you can’t predict volatility. 2. Options give better payouts than stocks because you can have a volatility and delta view.

I don’t follow the nuance between your two paragraphs. No one has a winning strategy. but if you do, options are more lucrative?

No one knows anything with certainty. When you trade options you predict vol. it’s no different than trading stock and predicting direction. Some people have a system that gives them an edge others just sell options because they assume vol is always rich (no system)

she doesn’t have a winning strategy. Selling strangles on the spx without some system to determine rich and cheapness of vol is trying to exploit risk premium in one of the most efficient asset classes in the world.

I did. I got the sense you are new to corporate acquisitions because of the questions you asked.

stop thinking of the money as real.

OP is still lamenting Biggie’s death.

like a house purchase. They have an agreement but there are closing conditions (generally due diligence and government approvals)

yes. It’s in the corporate filings.

Boards are often described as CEO rubber stamps but it’s more complicated than that. In accepting the offer the board has said the long term value of the company is not 54.2. The stock will plummet to further depths of Elon walks away (the billion dollars isn’t that meaningful of a breakup...

it was an option on a future.

Everything you said contradicts your original point. Twitter is a powerful platform for communication. It’s more powerful than Facebook.

boards don’t call peoples bluffs with billions of dollars and tens of thousands of jobs on the line. The board feels musk can and will buy the company and that is in the best interest of the shareholders. I don’t agree with them, but I’m not on the board nor am I a shareholder so my opinion...

do you know how many ideas, thoughts, and witticisms are shared through twitter? It’s the go to to see popular opinion of the masses as well as what is in the mind of celebrities and politicians. it may not be profitable, but it is the platform for open discourse in the world.* * open meaning...

As news of Elon’s collateral have come out, there is greater chance of the deal busting.

the SEC are a bunch of spineless monkeys. Elon should be in jail for market manipulation.

the dips will be for one of two reasons: 1. Liquidity imbalance 2. Real odds of deal not closing. #1 is fine. #2 will cost you dearly.