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  1. J

    2018 P/L year to date +40%

    Good, If you have record of annual compounded 80% for last three years, and if you are confident the anuual percentage long time (for example 50 years). Then you current asset is expected to grow 1.8^50 = 5802635025810 times after 50 years. If you have saving of 100K (for example) in current...
  2. J

    2018 P/L year to date +40%

    If you have an army with 100 soldiers this year, annual 20 percent above means those 100 soldiers should conquer 20 soldiers (from outside country?) yearly in average to become 120 soldiers. Next years 120 soldiers becomes 100*1.2^2=144 soldiers. How about 50 years later?
  3. J

    2018 P/L year to date +40%

    One year is too short to say something. Spend five or ten years so find a significant PnL result. 1)If you like to say "I kept annual compounded 10% for 5 years", then your initial seed of 100 should become 100*1.1^5 = 161.051 which is 61%. 1)If you like to say "I kept annual compounded 20%...
  4. J

    10,000 hours to learn trading - Who wrote this rule?

    Of course, the above is before tax+commission as well as expense.
  5. J

    10,000 hours to learn trading - Who wrote this rule?

    10K hours is almost 10000/(7*20*12)=5.95=6 years if we spend 7 hours in 20 days every month. I agree that at least we need 6 years of PnL curve for comfortable continuation. For example, 1)if the PnL shows compounded 10% over SnP, then we expect roughly 1.1^6=1.77 and 2) 15% over SnP, then...
  6. J

    What is the symbol for Brazilian nation bond?

    Of course, we should not forget the currency risk.
  7. J

    What is the symbol for Brazilian nation bond?

    Of course, no free munch at all, I agree. For example, my offer is like this. Take 10 countries which give good return(bond yield) to invest your cash of 10 percent to each countries. Worst scenario is default of one country out of the 10 countries. If 9 countries pay back successfully...
  8. J

    What is the symbol for Brazilian nation bond?

    Dear- I heard some countries offer pretty good yield for national bond. For example, Brazil bond is roughly 9.5% annually compounded. Where and how can I find their symbol? May we buy it in IB, with Brazilian currency in IB account? -Jay
  9. J

    Can we make alarm if Dow is down >2%

    Dear- As Friday, if the Dow index is down 2% or more, I like to trade much in the next day. With Python, R, Excel I like to hear some alarm whenever I open my PC or my cellular at 7 PM. Hopefully With 1) chrome crawling to yahoo/finance website 2) sounding "The Dow is down 2.45%" 3)...
  10. J

    1.8% Profit per Day Compounded over 220 Days

    For example, suppose one saved $10000 by working hard. After one year with 220 days as above, he must have 10K*1.018^220 = 10K * 50 = 500K After 10 years probably his asset of 10K* 50^10 = 50K * 9.765625e+016 might be richer than Bill Gates. Furthermore, most traders have 50 years (from 30 to...
  11. J

    Take time to become successful traders?

    Overall, trading is a zero-sum game (specifically equity's zero sum with respect to index average) Since many traders pay huge amount of commission and tax lifetime, the trading cannot be zero sum. If the game is free with no tax, then probably half may be a winner. For example if one pay...
  12. J

    Poker players make the best traders?

    In some sense, the two games are similar. 1) While poker pay rake(time, collection)of roughly $20 per hour (in NJ Atlantic City or LA Commerce) , trading pay commission and tax. Both are zero-game, more specifically equity trading is zero-sum after the index average. 2) Equity trading gives...
  13. J

    Two Years of Trading Dangerously at 84% Annualized Returns

    If you have a strategy with annual 150% compounded, then your seed of 100K should become 100*(1+1.5)^10 = 953674.3= 953M after 10 years. If you live 50 years more (suppose you are 30 now), then your seed of current 100K should be 100*(1+1.5)^50 = 7.888609e+021 *K which might be bigger than...
  14. J

    Two Years of Trading Dangerously at 84% Annualized Returns

    Some objection! If you have 80% ROI (For example, one year of business makes 80K for every 100K), then stop trading in the market to go there NOW. Personal goal is 10~15% over the market (annually compounded) For example expecting <= 15K for every 100K in one year. More specifically 30~45%...
  15. J

    Two Years of Trading Dangerously at 84% Annualized Returns

    Personally I have no experience except equity trading at all. Forgive me for not having option trading. Two years of result may not be significant, too short, hopefully five or ten years for significant result. Wish you a continuous result as the last two years! Furthermore I hope ANNUALLY 12%...
  16. J

    Two Years of Trading Dangerously at 84% Annualized Returns

    Furthermore, if I(we) did NOT win 40% last two years. then I(we) are a loser. For example, anyone who had 100K two ago is a loser if his account is currently below 140K.
  17. J

    Two Years of Trading Dangerously at 84% Annualized Returns

    Probably you mean that during the two years in 2016 and 2017. At that time, the market changes from 18000 to 25000 which is roughly (25000-18000)/18000 = 0.3888889 = 40% difference. (annual 20%) That means average trader with 100K should attain 140K in account during the two years. OP made...
  18. J

    Trading while working full time

    For example, if you have free 10 min every hour and one full hour in lunch between 9 and 5, then it is possible. But you need to make a good programming and logic for trading which takes SEVERAL years at least.
  19. J

    How many years are necessary to consider yourself a successful trader?

    Probably I mean same as yours. Forgive my low proficiency in English. For example, Poker is quite close to derivative in ZERO-SUM sense. Stock (equity) market is quite close to real estate market in ZERO-SUM sense.
  20. J

    How many years are necessary to consider yourself a successful trader?

    Likewise, I like 2008 market based on personal trading logic. However thing is NOT in favor of me recently. Hope both will be happy next few years.
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