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First you said I need to buy CAD now. I can't afford to do anything about this so it is no longer an issue anyway.

This is a one time situation that is not business related.

Doesn't a spread require me to come up with a forecast on what the future exchange rate will be?

I checked out CAD options at PHLX and they are indeed too expensive to make hedging feasible.

How is average defined? I assume that the majority of option contracts are put on by professional traders who are very good at what they do.

That isn't hedging. What about fx options?

What is the second best way? I pretty sure you can hedge currencies.

I will be having money coming to the US in Canadian dollars some time in the next three to six months. How do I go about hedging the exchange rate with options? Are options as effective as futures or forex for this?

I think TOS is great but some times I want to analyze a hypothetical position that I've read in a book or online. That doesn't seem to be doable in TOS. I also find TOS somewhat awkward for doing what if scenarios. I've heard a lot of good things about Hoadley's software. I like software...

Isn't it extremely unlikely that the underlying would touch both strike prices?

I came up with the 60% from TOS.

After doing some more research I understand this point now. I see that if an IC has a 30% probability of expiring ITM, it actually has a 60% probability of going ITM some time during the trade. I see now that trade management is quite complex.

Agreed. My question relates to understanding the odds prior to placing the IC.

Mark, Last week I read a similar example that you posted on your blog. I did not understand it then and I still don't understand it now. I figured out how to do this in TOS and it indicates around 40% OTM.

Thanks. I understand it now. It is a good thing I saw that video.

I actually did come up with that analogy on my own. But with a coin it has to be one or the other. With an option it doesn't have to reach either strike price.

I use TOS. I don't fully understand the Analyze screen yet and am not getting consistent results with it.

That's what I thought. Yesterday I watched a Dan Sheridan video at CBOE and he said it was 60%.

If you have an IC with a credit and the short strikes each have a delta of 30, what is the probability that the market will reach one of those strikes at expiration - is it 30% or 60%? I realize there are other factors involved. I'm just trying to figure out how to estimate this based on the...

Is there a TOS forum where I can ask questions about using the software when their office isn't open?