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I agree completely - because if the analysis is done at the end of the price bar, you don't know how many whipsaws would have occurred before the bar finished forming. It is those whipsaws that would seriously degrade the performance of the system. However, I have a question. If we ignored...

no, if you go to www.nasdaq-100.com you will see that July 11's NAV was 38.13 and the closing price was 38.12 I don't think the NAV is precisely the NDX divided by 40 - there are probably some technical details Thus, not really any arb

probably a legitimate path - if you come up with good ideas, then the portfolio managers will start to listen to you

Hi, can you explain something? I thought only the NYMEX minis could be done electronically; whereas the big contracts are not available during the day electronically (although before/after pit hours would be available?)

ozzy - we should start a thread for you... just reading this thread quickly before shutting down & came across your story... I suspect if you have been successful in the past, you can be so again in the future... so many traders have lost a lot and come back best wishes

Out of pure curiousity, do you think there is higher potential in prop futures? I am honestly not sure. I've long considered prop equities but the in the prop futures arena success seems more hit-and-miss. I know there are exceptions however, lilke "The Flipper"

In my opinion, investors in hedge funds also like the managers to have a significant portion of their own wealth in the hedge fund. This shows the manager has confidence in their own abilities. So, starting a hedge fund would not be a route to take if you don't want to expose your own wealth...

by the way, I'd like to look at the charts, can you give us the ticker symbols / exchange?

I think this happens all the time in the "junior" sector of the capital markets.

If they have just started drilling, how do you know they are going to do very well? Isn't that like knowing you are going to win the lottery?

Brandon, I've never been a paid subscriber. But I've read stuff you've (or Toni) written and posted at various points in the past, and always enjoyed it and learned something. For what it's worth, I wouldn't worry about the single poster who was disappointed.

in the end though, it's kind of an "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em..." that's why I want to become a prop trader :-)

good points, definitely ANY senior mgmt of any trading group, that thinks there is a risk limit (based on end of day) of X, but intraday their trader actually takes risk of a multiple of X (as long as it is back to X by the close) is clearly not seeing the whole picture and headed for trouble

I think your point #1 is totally incorrect. Capital is based on risk. It is not based on the funding requirement. Think of it like the margins needed for futures.

It is not consistent. Some desks are stars one year and bad the next. But define repeatable edge? How much money you expect to make every day/week/month?

As an extension to my previous posts, think of JPM (or other dealer) like this. Perhaps the capital allocated to the trading ops is $10 billion (I don't know what it actually is, might be in their financials). They make $850 million, which is ROC of 8.5% This is on the low side -...

I work at a financial institution. When I was on the derivatives desk as a summer student I also asked along the lines of your question 4. I didn't understand the answer at the time but now I do. The reason is that banks have to put up capital against every trade. Shareholders expect them...

great point - I did notice him wiping his brow quite a bit, and definitely that could be part of the "act" I like your heads up on the "stumped" part too. Thanks!

until tonight, I didn't actually know this was the name of his show, believe it or not - just thought it was an expression... But I ran across it randomly tonight. My wife was on the phone at the time, and told me afterwards she thought it was a spoof/satire of a stock market type show. I...

I will take a closer look, but on the surface the main problem is that the returns for bonds are not just the yield at the start (end) of the period. You also have capital gains/losses. This will affect your total return.