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Do the 20% of predictable periods comprise trend continuation or reversal? If reversal, then it's "easy". In other words, it is 12:01, the last 1 minute bar (or however you measure the trend) has been UP and we have a prediction (correct 83% of the time) that the next bar (closing at 12:02)...

I kind of agree. So his fund lost money on a position. Big deal - lots of hedge funds lose money on lots of positions. Recently some funds previously thought immune have lost big. If a person doesn't want to read his book, no one is forcing them to. So stop griping. It is not a crime to...

Hey Brandon, hope you're well... Anyway, my question is: WTF???!!!! They actually sued you for saying O'Neil influenced you? What a horrible use of the legal system that was. I don't know if you can talk much about that but that is the first I've ever heard of such a thing. That's...

There is a guy named Balyasny who was a prop trader in the late 90s / early 00s at Schonfeld. He now has his own hedge fund, last time I heard. The reason he would start a hedge fund rather than continue prop or trade his own money is probably the fact that hedge fund managers are amongst...

Actually, corporate bond yields are very low compared to equity yields (eg, for equity yield, try the inverse PE ratio of earnings to price, or EBITDA/EV). As long as it persists, basically Private Equity is arbitraging the public markets by buying companies (cheap asset) and selling...

I don't view this as market manipulation. I rather would call it "extreme market making with a speculative bent". Here is why it isn't market manipulation. The person posting the bid/offer could easily be executed against if they weren't careful, due to the markets being electronic...

I have to say that although it is unfortunate that your losses were so big that day, as an outside observer for whom Market Wizards was one of my major introductions to trading, it is pretty cool in retrospect that if you were going to lose 11MM, at least you got to lose it for Richard Dennis...

About 2-3 years ago I backtested a covered call strategy and found very similar results to what the GATEX fund or the CBOE buy-write index would suggest. Effectively what you are doing is converting the "normal" distribution of equity index returns (it is leptokurtotic, however) into a skewed...

well in SAC's heyday of awesome returns (as opposed to just really really good) didn't they insist on getting analyst calls first? and therefore, they did know stuff before the rest of the world; basically, that a stock would be upgraded or downgraded but I've heard that analysts have to...

cool, Pabst - just googled Marquette - looks interesting... I like how they describe themselves as "liquidity providers".

I have heard of other interesting bond pit folks other than Baldwin - Gelber, Kenyon, Steidlmeyer... I am sure there are other legends... any stories about non-Baldwin wizards - or semi-wizards?

Did this group of professional traders work in banks? Sounds like they looked for arbitrage opportunities (could be in a statistical sense between instruments, not necessarily strict arbitrage) rather than outright directional. My peripheral knowledge of trading desks at banks/dealers...

I have been following this back & forth and I must agree with this point. If there is some trader at Swift or any other firm grossing +100K per month, they should be constantly & rationally weighing the options of where they should trade based on maximizing the value to themselves. To...

market facilitations/crosses in equities? or something else?

So if I extrapolate that to my experience in electronic equities, the analog would be - and correct me if I'm wrong... Stock XYZ is bid 400 shares at 52.16, offered 300 shares at 52.17 An order comes in to buy 1000 shares at 52.17. But that order doesn't get 300 shares and then make a new...

sorry, who's "mnx" ?

How do all these young guys (assuming mostly male, including yourself) make money at Swift these days? Liquidity providing? Jumping on momentum? Like your Chinese trader example who makes 8000 and gets paid 10% = 800 USD per month. They still have to do something to make that 8000K in...

Not sure about that. The market-makers at IBs know the future "sort of" due to order flow, and they may position around that to make money. But that is not pure prop trading - but likely could be more profitable over all since market makers are the casino. But the pure prop traders at IBs...

Great story Pabst. What does "knew how to trade uncompetitive" mean? When you say "sleazy" and "steal" - you mean legal "theft" basically that the floor traders had a legitimate advantage being where they were? Or was it stealing in a moral sense even if not illegal? Or worse? Thanks

I'm not as much of a Wizards "groupie" now so I probably won't try to contact Trader Vic unless I one day invest in his funds or something. I see in his updated bio that he has traded for Soros in the past. I was not aware of that but I did know there was a Cooperman (Omega) connection...