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Interesting. Thanks for illuminating those of us in the dark on this very interesting field. Do you happen to use this kind of technology yourself with any success? I believe Jim Simons said that Renaissance used machine learning models.

If higher on the day - would assume a bottom around 4280 or just below within the 1st 30 minutes. If not, potential of a trend day down. While rare, they do happen once in a blue moon. :wtf:

Thanks. Actually, I was not aware that was possible. Presumably the probability would have to be greater than 0.5? If not - how could a forecast be made?

Over the last 5 years the largest day down in July (net change) was - 1,2 % on ES / SPX. Currently, we're down - 1,6 %. My predictive model suggests a very high probability of trading back inside and closing inside yesterday's range in today's RTH session, but can't rule out a dip on the Open...

Over the last 5 years the largest day down in July (net change) was - 1,2 %. Currently, we're down - 1,6 %. My predictive model suggests a very high probability of trading back inside and closing inside yesterday's range, but can't rule out a dip on the Open. Say within the 1st 30 minutes...

Guess someone made a big mistake thinking the stock market have anything to do with the economy. :) This is way overdone, IMO, but the market is thin in ETH. If I wasn't already long one contract from 4300, I would have bought 4280 with some size, but not interested in 'averaging down' on this...

It's not supposed to happen until August, damn it! :)

Intriguing. Which ones are you looking at? VIX and SPX? Are you suggesting the current put/call ratio warned or hinted at this drop / increase in volatility?

I sold mine to another trader while warning him it was mostly rubbish. He still wanted to buy them. LOL. I kept the few good ones to myself.

Meaning it's a black box, right?

Yeah. A bit surprised by this drop in July to be honest. Maybe I shouldn't be? Open gaps below @ 4280,25 and 4286,50. Next below that at 4256. I would imagine that a 50-70 point gap down on the RTH Open would be a great buy at least for a fast counter-move on the Open.

I wonder if those who say markets can't be predicted ever went through the trouble of establishing even a basic predictive model. If you don't even have the valid data to compute basic probabilities - how can you say prediction doesn't work? Regardless of that, prediction may not be necessary...

How so?

Prediction is about establishing probabilities. Probabilities usually are not certainties. And those who say markets can't be predicted? Well, too bad for you. :)

WTF? A drop in July? Stocks only go up? BUY. :)

Yes. I followed a guy a few years back who were both an educator, software developer and a trader. I actually thought he could be one of the exceptions to the rule, but let's just say that a few years later I discovered a few things which greatly suggests that he ain't all that as a trader...

Of course it’s false.

No need to trade when it's risky and not clear. I would probably pass... The only thing I can say is that these type of days tend to close above your yellow line. :)

Yes. True. It only takes one really bad loss to either wipe out all profits or your entire account when what normally doesn't happen does happen (as it does once in a blue moon).

Yes. I've noticed that about order flow being very much in vogue over the last few years as the next great thing. LOL. Even from the outset it never made any sense to me how orderflow would mean jack sh*t in an instrument like ES. Maybe in single stocks. Maybe... However, I always reasoned that...