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Why bet against seasonality and a strong trend? If a medium/long term short trade that's worth being in materializes - you'll have enough time to enter after some confirmation anyway.

Got it. At one point a single large player should start getting issues, though. I'm curious where that limit really is on ES. In comparison, I've heard that people start getting issues on NQ with as little as 10 contracts. The 1-point per day guy I mentioned would routinely do 30-50...

Interesting. I don't know how your friend trades, but I imagine the results would be different for an intraday 'swing trader' and a scalper moving quickly in and out of the market where ticks actually matter. While generally very liquid - the market can be thin at turning points and certain...

All the time? No slippage? I've had partial fills on limit orders with my measly 5 contracts, but usually it's not an issue.

Well, one thing is for sure and that is that your trading methodology needs to be aligned with the market you're playing in. Many seems to start the other way around and try to make the market fit their method or preferred approach. :)

I'm not saying you are too bullish - I've just noticed that you never seem to be bearish or have any concerns about stock market valuations. Well done on identifying sector plays and finding value at a discount.

Good comments, good people. I ran the numbers on the OP simply to get a sense of balance and realize what's possible in a historical perspective as I've been cautious to play the long side lately. Even if I go mostly long anyway. So, considering those and with seasonality as well I'm less...

I've got nothing to lean on here as most of my statistical biases are fulfilled at this point, so calling it an early weekend. We can see 4720/25 or we can fill this gap below. No strong bias for either. Here is where a "dumb" trend follower might excel and simply follow this trend for as...

Hello everyone, I can't be the only one who's getting dizzy up here, but this market simply keeps going and going. :) As of today's Close - the S&P500 index is up 24,60 % on the year. With approximately 35 trading days left of the year we can put that in a simple historical perspective... If...

Yeah. Make no mistake. I do like Rickshaw and I agree with much he's saying as it's simply the truth. I'm just saying that while we're in an incredible bull market beyond belief - we've had some nasty corrections too. Ones which probably have done considerable damage to leveraged longs. It's...

You're a big swinging dick. :) Apologies if you're actually a woman. Is that your typical size? How do you experience moving that much size on ES? Any issues?

Correct. It's been a while since I read it, but I did at least enjoy it quite a bit back in the day. Marty was a big S&P futures trader, but mostly pit trading, I think. I think he also said in a newer interview that he wouldn't be able to trade successfully in today's electronic markets. Many...

Did you make the mistake of thinking too much? :) Sometimes I feel it can be an advantage to simply be 'dumber' and think less. Here's where a pure trend follower might an advantage as he/she doesn't think in terms of too high or too low. Just follow the trend - up or down. Go flat if the...

For what it's worth - I find that it's important to take some time off after a larger than normal loss. Is this easy to do? Hell no. But that may be precisely why it's so important. For myself, I have found that large losses compound themselves. My confidence is shaken and I'm more concerned...

FWIW - I got in and out of a few longs this morning and just got flattened on a trailing stop @ 63.25. My target was 65.25, but I didn't have the confidence today, so trailed a tigher stop behind a late entry. Looks like there was even more juice on the table, but I feel it's hard to commit to...

What happened?

That right there is trading with $500 intraday margin. :)

Probably wise to wait for a pullback here and then see if it is a pullback or becomes a reversal. I'm getting a bit dizzy up here. :)

According to himself - he's also taken some rather large losses. During covid and also in the recent correction in September. For all we know he might be in drawdown for the year even with those (so far) unrealized gains. I think Rickshaw is a funny character, but it's a bit ridiculous to...

Sounds good. Repetition is the mother of skill. I'm glad it's working out for you so far. My best advice (which it seems you're already intent on doing) is to start very small when you go live. 1 MES shouldn't really feel that different from simulator trading. Build on that and very slowly add...