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The problem with breakeven is that it's usually a random price point for most trades and/or the stop is moved to breakeven too soon. There's something to be said about not letting a winner turn into a loser, though. If I scalp for 6 ticks on ES - I'll auto-BE @ + 5 ticks. The ES generally moves...

You beat me to it. :)

Didn't get the deep pullback. Looking for another thrust towards the HOD going into the last hour of the day which will print a double top or make a push for 98,50 / 4700.

Did a check on my basic statistical model and it seems to agree. We will at least not see new lows today, unless something happens. Which I think is very unlikely. Will check back in within an hour or two too see if there's a pullback to enter long on - for a ride back to the HOD (double top)...

Flat and done for the day. I had the guts to enter long even on that large gap up, but not any longer. I figure we have a good 20 points higher to go, but we can see a deep pullback from here as well, so not worth the risk right now. A deeper pullback to say 60/65 should be a worthwhile buy...

Yesterday, I was considering to write how most weeks ain't Inside Weeks in order to anticipate the rest of the week. But I figured I talk too much already. :) The market seemed overextended this morning, but I just went with the trend. There's an open gap above at 4698,50. Maybe... 2 % up...

Thank you. I'll need to look further into this, then. I don't have SPY data, but I'm sure IQ Feed will hook me up.

Thank you. It's always nice when the market goes pretty much where you expect it to go. Not every day, though.

Probably got the day low now. 4590/4610 if/when we break above 4570. Inside Day definitely possible today. Not trading advice. Just musings from an amateur.

Morning pullback as expected here. Let's see if this one can bottom out @ ~ 30 - 37. Too early to pick a bottom, yet.

Hi, Chuck, Good luck on your journal and trading. I'll be following. Question. Do you have any experience with US indices? ES? If yes - how do you feel the Eurostoxx compare?

You're welcome! :) The odds for up on Monday seems very high based on this, but eventually some day comes which negates the pattern, so it's important to stay flexible, IMO. But interesting to observe how these kind of days don't typically have continuation lower the next day as I imagine a...

Is the Senate's inquitiy into Tether something which could trigger even lower prices...? As far as I'm concerned - the short term trend is still down. That dip to low 40 was heavily bought leaving a large tail on both weekly/daily charts and is so far a bottom. Could it be the bottom for now? I...

So, looking only at Friday it was an Outside Day which opened above the prior day high, but closed inside the prior day range after making new lows. I can't share all the specifics I look at, but let's just say that all 5 Mondays following such a day were what I'll call bullish days going...

So, we have two consecutive weeks making lower lows where the first week came from an all time high. Following such a pattern - 60 % of the following weeks saw new lows, but not by much and 80 % of the sample actually closed net positive by week end. While last week could seem dramatic and...

I believe I've seen you reference SPY earlier. Do you find that tracking SPY gives you information that helps you as an ES trader? Does the SPY lead at times? Thank you.

If you look at closing prices - 46 trading days actually. Tuesday came close at 1.89 %, though. And barely dipped below 2 % intraday. As of today's close - we're only down 4,29 % from the current top. If we correct 10 % - we have a few hundred points to go.

Sure, but very often may be an exaggeration. Approximately only 9 % of all trading days are Outside Days. 23 so far this year including today. Yes, I do think they're useful.

Yes, the VIX appears to be mean reverting, but it certainly can go higher than 35 and remain elevated for some time. With the correction in October I believe it was below 30 for the entire move. I wouldn't be surprised to see a large gap down on Monday's RTH Open.

Yes. :cool: Didn't trade it, though. It's not that I don't short, but exploiting down days definitely is a sticking point for me. When I started trading I loved shorting and would never have the guts to buy near a bottom. These days it's the other way around. Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts...