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I don’t hold a strong view as I believe the markets can quickly reverse, too, in this climate. Above 4450 is simply the minimum to ensure a positive week which seems most likely from here. I posted this yesterday:

Today's RTH session filled the gap from the 16th of February. Not a surprise that we saw a range bound consolidation today following last week's 4-day rally of the lows. We may see a range bound week, but barring any negative news during the week odds seem to favour a a close above 4450 by end...

Is position management part of risk management? Successful trading requires you to cut your losses / keep your losses small(risk management) and riding your winners (not taking profits too soon). There's no way around this. At the end of the day/week/month/year you tally up your wins and...

The bears tend to salivate when prices are dropping, but it's interesting to note that the largest weekly ranges since we started going lower from the top have been to the up side. The largest being this week at 304,75 points low to high. In comparison, the largest week down was 221,25 points...

This week closed up 6.14 % on ES. The last 8 times that happened (also accounting for the market being down from the top) we saw a positive net change 6 out of 8 or 75 % if you like percentages. With the largest net change being + 4.17%. 2 of the weeks in the sample saw a sharp reversal...

That's a general problem with such illustrations. Actual charts and the market is much more 'messy' and sloppy.

Absolutely zero. Did you check out the book on Simons yet? As a quant/system trader you'll find it amusing. Funny thing is that Simons also had issues with wanting to override his systems - especially during drawdowns (I saw you had it the other way around).

I was thinking about your position earlier this week. For some reason I thought you had the March contracts on and had taken a loss already. Seems like you're still in the game. :) What's the plan, though? You just gonna hold this? You do any other trades at the moment?

I did not put words in your mouth. I asked you a question. :) What's the "mistake"? That's the claim, but it seems too unreliable to me, although I will readily admit that it may be due to my lack of understanding of volume patterns since I'm not an expert at reading volume. What if price...

FWIW, I don't make predictions without hard data, so this is just a cursory look at the chart. I've no idea based on that alone. It would be a surprise to me if this get legs, but then again, this bull market have surprised us more than once over these last few years...

So, volume does not always lead price...? I'm not sure how reliable these type of patterns are, but I couldn't help notice earlier this week how especially the weekly chart on ES/SPX looked like one large bull flag. If one should trade what one sees or recognizes and not what one thinks (with...

That reminds me of the one big trader here in Norway who avoided the press as far as he could to the point where you at one point couldn't find more than an old black and white picture of him. Speaking of incredible returns, this guy started out trading electricity futures with a starting...

To follow up on Chat With Traders I have to say I'm very much impressed with the caliber and amount of traders that's been on the show so far. It's similar to Market Wizards in audio-format and quite a few of the 'wizards' are interviewed as well.

Right. Is he a big name in Sweden? Only recently heard of him myself.

That's interesting. Most people in this thread seem to hold a different opinion: How do you like trading this volatility?

Kind of sounds like a plan. ;)

Maybe my math is off, but I have the high at 4818,62 on the 24th of January and the low on the 24th of February at 4114,65. That's a difference of 703.97 points and a % change of 703.97 / 4818,62 = 14.6 %. NDX was well below 20 %, though, at 21.8 % down from high to low. Any thoughts moving...

A third solution is to take the occasional larger trade when you have a very good play.

Yeah. I'm sure the concept of runners can help the math quite a bit. Another solution could be to trade with low leverage and increase your size if you're wrong. For a skilled trader I believe this is feasible assuming your initial loss was fairly small. Scalpers, by default, seems to be...

I'm not sure I agree. I definitely agree his results makes him a bit of an outlier, but considering the market conditions over the last 12 years it's definitely within the realms of what's possible. There are several traders in the Market Wizards books with similar results. This guy is a retail...