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This is weak as hell, but I'm not loving the R/R here right now and we could see some choppy behaviour and counter moves as these levels are defended. Cashing in my chips and calling it a day for now as I have to be somewhere else. This market appears to have much more downside still. Playing...

Bidless market. Cleanest downtrend in a while. Expecting some counter-movement in this zone, but I think we'll see a break.

Not holding Friday's Close is weak. Also broke a TL on the 60-minute. See those long tails above that 3950 supply zone. I think we're headed below 3900 on the day if this market can't find a bid soon. Probably need to hit 3900 before we'll find out for sure.

Yes, I posted a ton of those over the years, but maybe not everyone is paying attention. :) For example here with a prediction pre-market where the odds were extremely high of a positive close and very, very high for a move higher: ES Journal - 2021/2022 And the chart for that day by end...

The Tuesday following labour day have an average change of -.08 % since 2006. 10/16 closed down on the day.

I think Kristjan Kullamägi said his win rate was as low as 30 % but with his winners being 10x his losers that's no problem at all. It all comes down to your R/R ratio, market and trading system, IMO. High win rate system tends to have inverted R/R ratios, so when you have a loss it can sting...

We have three weeks in a row with a negative net change trading from the high to the low. This happened 23 times since 2005. The following fourth week: - traded below last weeks low 55 % of the time. - closed negative only 32 % of the time. The largest being down a whopping 6.98 %. This was...

Dude. That's 4 trades where one was a wash trade. Means jack shit. :)

It would be fantastic, but obviously unrealistic, if people would just be honest about where they are. Example: I've studied market profile/Al Brooks/Jack Hershey/FuturesTrader71/-insert some other name or methodology- for a while, but I'm still not making money. It has helped me increase my...

I assume everyone have experienced that. As soon as we get complacent and sloppy, the market throws us a punch. I think walking a tightrope at dizzying heights is an apt analogy for (day) trading the markets. Thank you for your honest reply. It's not an unusual story. Didn't quite...

Yes, your comment answered some questions, but it also raised a few new ones... :) In short, if Jack's teachings and SCT system delivered what was suggested to the serious student, i.e.., taking home 2-3 x the daily RTH range on the e-mini S&P 500. Why ever do or study anything else? Even...

I don't know about that. I'd love to pat my own back. Nobody else is doing it. :) For me, the motivation for not having a journal, P&L statements on a weekly basis, making trade calls, etc., is entirely selfish as I feel it will have a negative impact on my performance. If I post a specific...

Musings from an amateur and gambler on a Sunday morning as we continue into the historically worst month of the year for the stock market. Remember, these are statistical figures, so it's not like every September is a down month. Where we're at and where we might be going... SPX Monthly...

You were the torch bearer of Jack Hershey’s teachings for a while, but I no longer hear you reference him. Did you abandon that pursuit or what happened?

So, one week later we have the conclusion. Monday wasn't the bloodbath everyone was expecting. Down 1.03 % at the LOD and closing down 0.67 % on the day. The week as a whole closed down 3.29 %. There doesn't seem to be much of a bid in this market and structurally this looks very much like a...

I could also add to my post above that there's levels within trading as well. Maybe you're an able trader who can grind out a modest living and may seek other sources of income to support that. Hell, maybe you even like to write or teach. After all - why are we hanging out on this forum and...

My assumption is always that those who teach ain't profitable traders, but that might not always be true. If you see successful business people you'll often see they have multiple income streams. Even if you're a successful trader it could still make sense to compound your income by other...

There was a weekly/daily P&L thread in the past where people used to post their results. Generally, it seems like with these kind of threads people stop posting when they start losing.

A down week usually bottoms out on Thursday / Friday. So, sub 3900 wouldn't be anything special on the day.

Interesting day. 15 consecutive red closes on the 5-minute since noon. And only a brief stall @ 3950 before rolling over below 3950. 3930 could be some kind of support, but this looks heavy. Not much of a bid in this market at the moment. Longs from here are certainly counter-trend and...