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Current low overnight is 3878. I refer to RTH prices/session, though. So let's see where the market goes in RTH. But I think we have a good chance of revisiting these lows in RTH if the market reverses here.

Never too late to join a strong trend. We might be a bit overextended for now, though. So, not willing to risk a pop below current lows. Make that 82.75 for the stop. EDIT: And out for 1 ticks of profit. ;) Not worth chasing at this point, IMO.

Why? I'm bearish medium term, but I'm thinking maybe options expiration tomorrow may hold this up just another day.

Yes. That's the whole purpose of trading. I want my account large enough that $1000K per day can be a slow day without overleveraging, but I have to grow my account with my own profits first and earn my stripes. So far since I started trading again I haven't had a single gross losing day yet. 2...

I think the basic theory is that market makers will want to have ES/SPX at the price that's most favourable for their books by expiration. I'm no expert on this, but that looks like 3900 - 3950 to me. Of course, MMs can get f''ked, too. Which I imagine can put more fuel to the fire. I'm just...

Triple witching day tomorrow. Now is the third time I said it. Surely that would influence tomorrow's price action?

I've seen @Buy1Sell2 do this more than once. The market could drop 500 points now and he will still say the weekly trend is up and we're just basing out with some normal counter movement.

That 10:05 5-minute tail bar was a good reversal signal. I agree that today's price action on the Open was tricky and still is, unless you're scalping for ticks. Anyone saying anything else is either lying or an expert trader. Big picture we're still trading in this larger range and we can...

Inspired by some other thread title: Who's gonna lie and say they weren't chopped to pieces on today's Open? :) I certainly was and gave up most of the pre-market profits trying to capture a breakout, but was able to claw back on this nice pop higher (gap fill). I would assume 4K by EOD, but I...

Okay. One last shot. EDIT: Locking in one point. Risk free ride. Curious if I should be happy with bottom of the range (3950) or if I should get greedy. Either way, I think I'll be flat by that report, although I suspect it won't have the same impact as the CPI. 2nd EDIT: Locked in 13 points...

And out. I think we have a good chance at breaking out of that range to the upside today, but I'm not playing it right now as I have some other stuff to attend to. Market's been bouncing of yesterday's close so far in this ETH session and did so in that last thrust lower, too. When that...

Shorted the rejection of that supply zone looking for a test of the lower end of the range. Nothing fancy. I realize my stop may be inside "noise", but that's all I'm risking. My statistical model suggests good chances of some upside movement today and a positive close, so I have to keep that...

Hard to say. I'm not a good chartist. Generally, I think it's hard to pinpoint the exact reversal of a trend. Usually, by the time a new trend is in effect and clear for everyone to see you may be late to the show. If it's a strong trend you can still make profits, though. It's further...

This 3900 zone is definitely a zone of big interest. You can't rule out a rally coming out of this base for a 2nd time. I'm thinking it won't, but I'm not married to that view. I seriously have no idea what's going to happen. Just an idea of what might happen. And that might be enough to put...

I posted this by start of this week and it generated some interesting replies. Some saying it was hard to be too bullish now. What I meant is that it's interesting to observe the chatter after a strong week down and the chatter after a strong week up. Seems like people get very emotional about...

Nice chart. By weekly trend, I assume one means either the trend on the weekly chart or the short term trend for the week, i.e., the weekly cycle. In my view, any trend higher short term was invalidated by yesterday's action. I've seen @Buy1Sell2 do this before, i.e., change his market view...

NQ components are holding up a bit better, though. Holding yesterday's close and putting in a higher low on this last leg down. Maybe there's hope for a green close after all... A lot can happen in an hour.

The market closed down 4.34 % yesterday and we couldn't even retrace half of yesterday's RTH range today. Much less hold the prior day close. That's some weak sh*t to me. I'm not trading it as I want to keep what I earned for today, but a sizeable drop by the close seems very likely to me. If...

Too early! Will take one more trade if the LOD breaks. That could get ugly... Otherwise, done for the day.

But that 3950 level is important, so it can trigger a short term reversal I'm sure. Headed lower eventually, though.