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If you only have 15 minutes to trade, then maybe it's not a good idea to day trade in the first place. Waiting for a pullback or not can be the difference between making money or not when day trading futures.

And every time you didn't wait for a pull back you made money? Come on, man. Half the time I can't tell if you're joking or serious.

10 years should be more than enough for intraday data, IMO. Regarding using the last 80 years that raises another question: How relevant is market history 80 years ago for what's going on today? It could be. Just asking.

One thing to consider is that we're in a post-FED market regime that should be different from the prior decade. That means a different playbook. Further, it could render a lot of prior data points and statistics useless. So, when someone says, "For the last 10 years XYZ happened 90 % of the...

Probably not, though. Levels tend to matter j**k when someone starts selling. Seems like bigger players are calling BS on yesterday's pump.

Looks like a trend day down for now. Weekly open around 20. Maybe.

Maybe. Small sample size, but my statistical model gives a mixed view for today at this point in time. Simplistically, one could possibly say that we had multiple attempts to move higher which failed. So, I'm not as bullish as I was this morning. I'm flat for now. May go long if we start...

Actually, I just stopped out my long here for a loss. Will consider re-entering long at a later point if this bottoms out. If not, we can trade all the way to yesterday's LOD from here.

I pray you're right, but these gyrations and deep pullbacks are making me dizzy. I think I'll take a conservative target if we do trade higher from here.

Those pullbacks sure are nasty in real time when you have money on the line. Of course, in hindsight looking at a chart in peace they look like a minor blip. :) Need to move above 66 before I feel calm, though. I think we have the LOD, but I'm not 100 % convinced yet.

NQ new lows. ES not.

Turns out it was 66.50. Not 65. Vicious pullback. Would be disappointing if the LOD doesn't hold here.

So far, so good. :) 4165 could be a potential hurdle and pullback high. As soon as we trade above there - the coast should be clear for 4175 and most likely 4190. There's no reason to stop at 90, though. Just a minimum target to the upside if this is an up day.

How about today? I have fairly high probabilities of at least 4175 today and would be expecting buying out of the gate on the RTH Open, but it's never certain of course. Most likely 4190 if we continue higher. Of course, there's the possibillity that some bigger players call BS on this rally...

Long or short? With this volatility it's difficult to swing it unless you're early and/or have a great entry. IMHO.

Why wait for a pullback? Because the profit potential if the market pulls back will be greater and the risk will be smaller. If you're uncertain if a pullback is due or not, it's possible to use OCO orders and work a buy stop above and a buy limit below market. Ideally, if the market takes off...

I'd be slightly surprised if this pull backs more than 4150 before we see 4200. Maybe 4160 is all we'll get. Surprise me. :)

On the subject of trades that are hard to take - fading/selling into a strong move higher (even if that move ends up reversing hard) is the hardest trade I can take. In comparison - buying near a (perceived) bottom is something I can do fearlessly. It used to be the other way around starting out.

If we pull back to 4150 - I'll load up the truck. Testing the waters here at 61, first. I have strong odds of yesterday's HOD being taken out today. If we gap up that can be a sell, but we should get up there one way or the other.

So, you've been long since January 5th? Pretty sure you were bearish a week or two ago, though. :) Well, if you look beyond a price chart and consider the conditions that have been driving this prior bull-market they're no longer present. We actually have interest rates now, money is no longer...