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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-19/goldman-pushes-back-forecast-first-taper-december-first-rate-hike-2016-fomc-qa

If Ackman says he bought way OTM calls as a hedge for this position, this thing will be down 20 points faster than you can imagine. Its not expensive to buy a hedge like that

Biggest piece of info today is the confirmation that the Fed will rescue rates as a long as the economy can't stand on its own

I expect this slap in the face by the Fed on bond investors to get markets to align the front end to something closer to the Fed's forecast. Its tempting for me to sell here but I'm keeping 2/4 to see what happens in the next few days

The Fed funds forecasts from this meeting are hard to compare to the ones from last meeting (with forecast materials). Only 17 people attended this meeting compared to 19 (in the last one), I guess some non FOMC voters (but voters in the forecast materials) had more important things to do. Only...

Fed said tighter financial conditions were the reason for no taper. Only reason for that were taper expectations and the great unwind of fixed income positions. Fed wants to stop rates from going to stupid levels and killing recovery, funny, once they signaled taper rates were up so much there...

RM, what are your thoughts on the 30y UST?

Sold 1/4 of ZQ position into this big rally here

I'm actually fading an anomaly, even since the Fed has provided guidance the front end has followed it, except in this particular period where a lot of people are unwinding fixed income positions. The catalyst that you seem to have missed is the Fed meeting next week, that is very likely to...

The thing is, his approach has ALREADY worked, he is beating the S&P since inception. I don't see anyone ripping on buffett because of 4 year returns

I'm tempted to sell some ZQ into this rally but I want to hold till the Fed meeting, I really think they will expand guidance in a way that is front end friendly. Specially with all the Summers talk, one way to tie his hands and prevent him from doing something crazy is to tie the Fed's hands first

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-11/stanley-druckenmillers-world-view-catastrophic-entitlement-spending-bizarre-illusory

I was talking about the app. the PC TWS is okay, its not great as DASTrader or other platforms but its ok

I tried to trade on a Android tablet and it sucks ass. I've tested TD Ameritrade, MBTrading and IB apps. They are all extremely limited in the amount of charts you can look at (usually 1) and the loss of productivity to a regular Windows application is huge. To open or close out a position they...

The vast majority of the time the equity loses everything. If you have to ask then clearly you don't know what you are doing and you shouldn't buy

Looks like Hatzius from GS also thinks the Fed might put out a dovish guidance " "While the August employment report was a moderate disappointment, we believe it is probably not weak enough to prevent the FOMC from tapering in September. However, it does raise the likelihood of a "dovish...

But the main idea here is that the Fed won't allow this material divergence without going all out on "open mouth operations". Rates are getting so ahead of the Fed that its more likely than not the Fed will say something about it. This creates some kind of floor support on the front end imo

The difference is that the Fed "ended" that game by guiding on rates. I say ended in quotes because I thought the market wasn't going to diverge materially from it, but that was wrong and it happened now. Back in 2010/2011 I was speculating the Fed needed a lower unemployment rate to hike than...

Only scenario where this trade can go bad is if the economy really takes off, beats all private and Fed forecasts, employment heats up and inflation surges. If things proceed as they are likely to the market will have to reset its expectations to match the Fed's employment/inflation->FF level...

If the amount of members who think rates will be at 1.5% or lower by year end 2015 increases as I expect, this might not be that big of a deal. Its an overwhelming consensus in the Fed that the first hike comes in 2015, with just two meetings in my contract (and only one with projections and a...