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I understand that there is some multiple equilibria issues right now. Like stocks rise on expectations of fed no hike but rising stocks make a hike more likely so stocks should actually fall, but a fall make a hike less likely and etc. This is confusing for everybody, including the Fed. Which in...

Economists seem to be agreeing that the Fed will hike next meeting. I just don't see it. Hiking now (from the Fed perspective) is either a small good thing or a big mistake (because it can fuel the downside of financial markets, which would then make the hike unnecessary). Given that they are...

People are blaming the market sell-off on Risk Parity. This seems to be a weird definition of RP. Or it is being implemented weirdly. The whole idea of Risk Parity is to have portfolio diversified so you don't get involved the market girations because your drawdowns are already limited. It makes...

Its actually a little less than 10bps, maybe 8. depends on where the effective fed funds go. The august contract look like had 13.75bps EFF priced on it (99.8625 settlement)

On no hike the Oct contract is likely to make 10bps. If they hike, it will lose something like 20-30 bps (leaning towards the lower end of that). So the risk reward is not great but I believe the chance of a hike in Sep is something like 5%

The Oct Fed contract didnt react to this ES tank so I bought a little bit. The lower stocks go the less of a chance of a hike. Also, huge miss for me on the SPY short. When I looked at the daily chart this morning I said to myself 'time to short with a stop at recent highs'. unfortunately the...

I got the Oct and Nov Fed futures contract on a watch for a buy. I don't think there is much of a chance the Fed raises rates in the next meeting, maybe in the Oct meeting (but thats late Oct to it will not affect much the settlement of the Oct contract) but even that, its a strech. The...

Yeah, some brokers are weird when it comes to OTC tickers. But it trades with a large spread on the OTC and usually they are non-marginable. So for me the Amsterdan ticker is the way to go

Its either 1.5% or 2% with a 20% performance fee. The high water mark is at $25 NAV

I see these sorts of tickers as good placeholders for cash. It will earn more than USTs while you wait for great ideas to put trades on. I just need to see if my broker will let a holland ticker to be marginable

The HLF short (which I'm not a fan of) is only 4.3.% of the fund

I never realized but it looks like the Ackman private capital fund has been IPOed a while back PSH (Amsterdan), PSHZF (US OTC) I just read the prospectus and it looks pretty good. Its definetly on my buy list for flash crashes days or when the VIX is on the moon (another one is shorting puts on...

Another thing that makes the market a good short (on a rally, with a clearly defined risk level) is the proximity to October. September is usually not that great either.

If someone buys an ETF crashing at $40 (with its correct value at $60) with margin (because the trader sees this a temporary irrational price), that trader can be broke and be liquidated by his brokerage if the same EFT continues to crash all the way to $1. Now, maybe this gets busted but I...

I wrote this on my journal: "Its similar to the Chuck Prince chair dance situation. Most of the big players understand that this market is overvalued and its only being held up by central bank policy. Yet they were all invested (sometimes with leverage) because if they didn't it would be fired...

People have been speculating about the reasons for this sell-off. I believe I understand why it happened. Its similar to the Chuck Prince chair dance situation. Most of the big players understand that this market is overvalued and its only being held up by central bank policy. Yet they were all...

The ES bounce thing, I will play it intraday as a daytrader. The play I was referring earlier was more as a swing/macro style trades

Some potential plays to consider now. ES bounce, dont like this one very much given the resistance levels at 1940/1950/1960. 1950 was what killed the intraday rally (whoever didn't sell into that needs to have their head examined. market was up 120 points into a multiple resistance zone). But...

Nice trade! How were you able to spot this so quicky?

The 'not a contributor to society' thing is ridiculous. A lot of professions that are generally regarded to be good for society (cop, lawyer, doctor) can be disastrous to society in the wrong hands. Look at Raymond Tensing. Whether someone contributes to society has more to do with what kind of...