Search results

reshort half size on red roll of the market

Overall, the Fed contracts were good gainers. I lost a bit on the short stock side but most of the loss came because I shorted yesterday at 200 and stocks grinded to 201 right before the announcement. The algo pop was quite small. There was plenty of time to hedge or cover even well after the...

Sold the nov contract as well. 99.82. The more stocks rise the more likely the Fed might hike. A sucker rally might tank this contract when people realize this

SPX above 2000 with dovish Fed is a standard breakout type setup. I don't want to fight this now. Will monitor and wait for weakness (multiple intraday lower highs) for a re-short

I sold Oct contracts at 99.855. good profit there, still holding the Nov one

I'm just not comfortable being short stocks here. Fed is saying the put is alive and well. Market might tank on buy the rumor and sell the news but it might rip on a new round of optimism. The last 'sucker rally'. seems 50/50. I rather have to chase the market down at 198 or so, than to have my...

hedged shorts. dovish statement

I cut down my short a little bit just in case the market pops to 205 in a temporary basis. Moved stop to 206. If the market takes off, I just don't think it will be sustainable so I don't want to cover at the top

One thing that I noticed is that the Fed funds futures market is far more efficient these days than it was back in 2008/2009/2010/2011 when I was longing it pretty hard. The fed being more transparent made everything easier to the guys playing with this big money. The edges are tougher to find...

I will say this. If the fed does hike, I plan to add to the short SPY position. SPX is so close to 2000 (a clear resistance level) that even if the algos drop it to 1985 ot 1980, a short there has 20-25 points of risk and potential reward of 50 to 150 points

And if that's wrong (lets say stocks do not tank), you lose 4bps, big deal. Swaping the short SPY for long Nov/Dec contract will make a lot of sense

I'm also considering buying The Nov and Dec contract AFTER the fed tanks them by being hawkish. The idea is that its a synthetic short on the stock market with a HUGE risk to reward ratio. Lets say the Nov contract tanks from 99.755 to 99.64 when the fed threatens to hike. I expect they to...

The big day has arrived! Here some different scenarios that might happen today: Fed no hike but hawkish talk (my baseline), stocks do the 'bloomberg terminal' pop but struggle to keep gains, buy the rumor sell the news. Probably fade today and finish red as people realize a Oct or Dec hike...

In october 2007 the bull market ended and in october 2008 stocks crashed 10% in a week, plus all the other historical crashes. With the overall return of stocks being negative in that month and the psychological effect it tends to have on investors, it looks to me that if anything is going to...

I like this trade of shorting SPY at 200 with a 205 (or 205.50 for extra noise protection) stop because if there is indeed a new round of risk aversion, we should at least re-test the lows. So the risk is 5 points a share and the reward is 15 points, potentially more (in fact, a lot more if you...

The Nov contract also makes sense. Because if they don't hike and talk dovish (the bad scenario), that contract will make more. I think I will buy some of that one too

Its just a little annoying to get filled on the Oct contract. Right now its 99.80 bid 99.805 offered. 5,100 contracts bid and 13,308 offered. so it can take forever without paying the spread. if I can't get filled on the bid by EOD I will just hit the offer

The idea is: Fed hike: loss on fed futures more than offset by gains on shorts as stocks drop 10% over a month. This is actually a good scenario for the trade Fed no hike but dovish talk. Gains on futures partially offset losses in stocks. The is the bad scenario Fed no hike but hawkish talk...

I'm trying to add to the Fed futures position. I will lose money on the short stock side if the Fed doesn't raise rates and talks dovish. But in the case I will having offsetting gains on the Fed futures side. If they don't raise but talk hawkish (signaling a hike later, which is my baseline...

I tripled the shorts at 200 SPY. I plan to hold it with a stop a 205.