Search results

stopped out at 101.2

The general relationship between an increase in bet size and variance is if you double your bet size, the variance increases by a factor of root 2 and vice versa. Hope that helps in what you are looking for.

Nonlinear has already given an explanation which you need to read and understand. The brief answer is that you have fallen into some layman's fallacy. True story to illustrate: a couple of years ago, i was dating this young, very sexy girl who, unlike me, did not have any money and was not...

To the chap who is asking if Kelly applies to a one spin scenario, the answer is yes.

I'm pretty much with kut2k2 . You guys don't understand the meaning of the Kelly fraction. To say you would bet the whole $1k is absurd. Maybe because $1k is not much. I think you guys might understand it more if instead of $1k, the bankroll was defined as your entire net worth. Let's say...

The point of Kelly is to find the optimal fraction of bankroll to use, variance doesn't come into it unless you can't take the heat. In this situation, we know precisely the probabilities of each outcome and only have a thousand dollars at risk. So no need to scale down Kelly.

close, reduces variance by 1 divided by root 2 = 71% ;)

are we trying to then maximise k*E?

what's the significance of multiplying k and E? edit : it's the expectation per spin!

I was a bit confused about whether you can bet on both R14 AND R16, the opening post says : - You are only allowed to place one of these types of bets: -- Any single number (including R-16, R-14, G-0), which pays off at 35-1 , -- Red or Black, which pays off at 1-1. But then says: -...

The problem is the overlap between r14,r16 and red...i think i would need to bet less than what i just said for RED, maybe only 20% on RED?

Ok, i would bet: 8% on R16, 5% on R14 24% on Red i.e those percentages of my bank each spin, (recalculating bank after each spin)

Give me a few mins, and I'll figure it out. Answer i gave yesterday was done in a min and late at night.

The basic message I'm hearing from your posts, emg, is that if you want to go into HFT, then yes, higher education is the key to success. You have made an excellent point and on behalf of the rest on the posters, I thank you for this astounding discovery. The Nobel prize awaits you! :D

i would bet 8% of bankroll on red- 16

That paper is about daytraders specifically, not small traders.

Day dreaming comes naturally I feel. When we were children, I'm sure we all day dreamed a lot although no doubt were told that it was a bad habit. It's nothing of the sort, it's the brain's way of de-stressing. Obviously, you don't want to day dream whilst flying your plane or driving your...

Day dreaming is easy to do because it's very enjoyable. It's like sex, you want to do it! In contrast, i find meditating a bit of a chore.

short 1840

no, he paid 10% of facebook to acquire whatsapp in order for him to have a company next year! well worth the price.