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You need to read the same books I told Cris to.

Chris, please do not do this. As one of the more senior members here, I can tell you that this strategy has a probability of ruin of 100%. If you have excel you can do the calculations and see the math. Do yourself a favor and buy a decent book on probability and expected value before you...

Damn, that seems a little high for such a short time period. Good start to the year.

I appear to be repeating myself quite often on here. :)

I don't think whether this is a bear market or bull market should affect your decisions. I analyze number lines. They don't look good right now. That could change next week. What I don't see happening is a plunge. I do think this market is going to grind lower. Again, because of the...

Some could argue that the correction we had in August was the correction we had during the Asian flu in 1998 when the nasdaq corrected 20% before trading back to the highs in the blow off top. We did something similar. We did manage to come all the way back to the highs in Dec. This is the...

One thing this volatility is telling you as well as the number lines is that you probably should NOT expect a selloff capitulation but rather a bear market in prices where we trade lower at normalized volatility. This should have enormous implications in how you structure your trades.

I've become desensitized to it. :)

It's the new normal. The fact that ACD does track it so well tells you that oil has found it's new volatility equilibrium in this environment. Same with ES.

Or USD/JPY?

Or the ES?

You mean like this today in oil?

Blew through the QTR A down like butter. Currently testing the yearly A down.

The place where you are hiding. :)

We've tested this area 4 times. Not a snowball's chance in hell this level holds. We're going to the basement.

Hold on to those 1000 oz Gold bars tightly. :)

It's not even remotely the same thing. But please, this thread is off topic and we already have a very robust and lengthy ACD thread where you can discuss. This is one of the things that irks me about ET. You guys want to discuss topics on other threads that are not about that topic. As...

They are not support and resistance levels. They are not trade signals. ACD is about doing quantitative analysis on volatility.

Yeah the volatility in these spreads now is getting bad. Only way to make clean money in oil right now is being long vol.

Yes, we use the term call differently. We "call" out stuff as a way of identifying what is happening in the market. You can kind of think of it more as a macro expose. For example, I "called" out the price action recently in the metals especially Copper as they were firming up while the...