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Gold....

It has nothing to do with likelihoods. It has to do with securities lending. The process has to do with brokers earning an interest differential which they CAN'T do on an option.

The call skew in Gold is still ridiculous.

Surf, it all comes down to one's opportunity cost. A person with a lot of capital and is very educated actually has a very high opportunity cost. While they may be successful, the question is are they making the best use of their resources accounting for their education and capital. For...

Btw, here is a list of some of those educated "underachievers": Bill Ackman: Harvard Business Kyle Bass: Finance, TCU Ray Dalio: Harvard Business School George Soros: London School of Economics John Arnold: Economics, Vanderbilt PTJ: Economics, UVA Ken Griffin: Economics, Harvard...

Exactly, like any business, the cost of a blowup is just that, it's an operating cost. Just like one of the costs to having a salaried job is being temporarily unemployed. The cost of being a professional athlete is getting hurt. It's the sum total of all the cash flows that matter.

Do you understand what NPV is? It's the fact that they DO know what it is as to why they are not trading. If their NPV is < 0 which based on their education is going to make their opportunity cost extremely high thereby creating a negative NPV. Do you even know what an MBA is? Nobody...

It's amazing to me how many people on ET do not have an education in finance, or economics for that matter. The only thing that matters in the long run, is like any business, is the net present value of all the future cash flows that you generate in this business. The NPV will take into...

I'm surprised nobody has commented on the vol crush in oil. That was a massive move. I sold vol almost at the high. Very lucky timing on my part.

Can't be done.

I think they were just testing the market. I don't think they liked the response. :)

Today would be the opposite, the opec cuts should be sending oil higher. If oil were at 52 week highs this would be the sell of the century. Unfortunately my Delorean is in the shop. :)

Nice wick off the monthly and QTR A down.

I told King that the Saudi's are no longer the marginal producer. And today proved that.

Talk about good news...bad action in oil.

Well said. Focus is very important. We are deluged with data, most of which is pure noise. The best traders are able to extract the tiny bits of useful data from this large population and better yet, have the patience to do so.

Zero.

I never said one can't make money. In fact I said the opposite. You WILL make money if you sell over priced options and buy under priced options over a very large sample of trades that are independent of each other. That's the central limit theorem. However this idea of selling options...

Bob, January was not a bad month, not even close. I would argue the opposite, that January was the ideal month for premium sellers in that they got both high premiums AND mean reversion. It's the one way extended moves that hurt. These funds should not have even lost money in January, the...

There is no such thing as "capturing time decay". It falls under the same ridiculous chapter as "trading for income". These are all titles of worthless books. ALL options are priced on their expected net present value. They are either trading above or below their fair value. How far...