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    not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

    yes it is vague.......... subjective..... but i aim to manage it with my experience......and i am an equivalent of a terrorist......i do not go to war against the big boys...... i just hit and disappear for a long time...come back next day i make a small amount of money daily and then i do...
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    not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

    i hope you are right :D
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    not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

    see chart what do you think is likely? do you think it likely that it will turn around and break the recent high? it might BUT IS IT LIKELY? this is what trading is about
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    not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

    thank you for your comment see you must understand this is why trading is so difficult. set ups can be defined. context cannot be. it can only be 'estimated'. this is the main reason 95% of traders lose...... it takes some time before you can know what the market is likely to do...
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    not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

    Brooks fills his books with set ups and not surprisingly readers think that is the main thing in trading. it is not. set ups will always set up in both directions-bull and bear-but the main thing is context which is that which is likelier to happen. this is why many many people find his...
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    not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

    i do not agree the higher the probability the lower the reward-100% probability 0 reward. that is why if probability is more than 70%, you may calculate the RR as 1:1 and once that is reached you may go countertrend
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    not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

    trading is not about patterns or set ups or strategies. trading is about math.....about what is likely.. in the end that is What Brooks is always stressing. and what is likely? that you will know if you see enough charts or from experience:the trend if there is one will continue
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    not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

    dont worry you will basically if it is very high probability then reward cannot be high so you can always fade a high probability trade by keeping a wide stop. high probability trades can only lead to scalps not high reward.
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    not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

    yes that is a pretty good way
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    Why are markets more prone to false breakouts when it is heavily observed?

    trading breakouts in stocks is ok but trading breakouts in forex is a low reward
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    not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

    ok here is this trade one look it is a trend up that means high probability buy.. so i sold and put a stop around 11 pips above the high-the stop is at 1.10114 and not what is shown in the chart- because a high probability trade will not give much reward
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    Advice

    why? you see studies have shown that people would rather go for the unlikely event which gives huge reward then go for the likely event which gives a small reward. that is because we all want to get rich......i have been there so i know it. for you to get rich a lot of people have to get...
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    not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

    but if you identify the trend keep a wide enough stop and trade 'small' you can forget about everything else
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    not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

    Brooks given all the advice anybody needs i have no intention of re inventing the wheel. But Brooks due to no fault of his own has been given very bad publicity by some... i wanted to counter that here by posting trades live using Brooks methodology but that is becoming very distracting because...
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    Trading can be learned alone?

    not really you can use wide stops and average. in this case trade small. both work but you should do the same thing for long time so that the probability risk and reward cocktail works out as it eventually will.
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    Do Journals Help?

    if the comments are reasons and complete rational for the trade then that is different from just a statement
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    not fooled by random market and by technical analysis

    yes it cannot be exactly quantified ..but do you need that precision? i just take brooks word for it.....if he says buying a breakout pull back is high probability that is enough for me
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