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That's exactly my point. Delta is a first derivative, the slope of the line. Gamma is the second derivative, or acceleration of that slope. Both of those assume that the slope will remain accelerating in the current direction at the current rate well into the future and well into a bigger and...

That is an illuminating chart, thanks. This clearly shows that in terms of national GDP China is ascending and the U.S. is declining. I think it's an apples to oranges comparison not to normalize that for GDP per capita though, since you're obviously going to spend a lot more of your GDP of X...

Keep in mind that Delta essentially is the markets consensus of the percentage chance that the price will exceed that point at expiration (absent a couple second order effects that would take some time to cover). So if the Delta on your Jan 19 $325 call is .05, it means the market is giving it a...

Is that 30 million USD or Yuan? I'm going to have to call pure bullshit on USD, and you're going to have to be a very exceptional case to be getting over $1.5M/year USD anywhere in the world. I can count on one had the number of people I know who've moved to China from Silicon Valley and they...

Thanks for bringing that up, I remember it as well, they even made movies about it!

To get back to the original topic, the mortgage industry relies on IRS income verifications for almost every mortgage underwriting package. This IRS office is shut down, so effectively all mortgage applications are on hold unless the bank's underwriters are willing to waive that requirement (and...

I'd use the term "catch-up" pretty loosely. US GDP per capita is $57,000, China's is $8,000, and the U.S. achieves that without the staggering levels of pollution, corruption, inequality, loss of freedom..... that Chinese face. I just have to push back on this "China is taking over the world"...

Well please enlighten me then. According to you government bad, no government or government not involved in economy good. Those are the 2 countries in the world that currently have the least amount of government and government involvement in their economy. And to paraphrase, you seem to agree...

Pretty sure it's one of the worksheets on form 2210

Just like that Somali economy, I hear it's doing great because they don't have a fed and their President and parliament do stay out of the economy. I hear similar great things about Yemen's economy dues to their lack of government participation in their economy.

Absolutely, no argument there. As I said a number of times on this thread this volpunter character's view of the world is naively simplistic, but even if you grant that approach as correct it still doesn't lead to the conclusions his type have come to. Obviously getting into an intelligent...

That depends on a couple important variables. Do you have a math or engineering undergrad? An MBA? Are you retiring around the 40 year old mark or are you in your 20s? Finance is pretty tough to break into, it's very much like the military in that you have to "pay your dues" working 80 hour...

Yeah, thanks for sending down that rabbit hole; "wasted" an hour of my day today reading other posts after the one you sent! Definitely on my bookmarks now.

Thanks for the post, I thought this graph was very illuminating of my earlier points, that even using the flawed simplistic model of economics that the volpi's of the world have bounding around in their heads, their assertions are objectively false. I wonder if he's going to accuse some...

Well I was a military officer for 20+ years and have started 2 successful companies. So while I certainly don't claim to know everything about leadership (see my assertion that good leaders have humility in knowing what they don't know) I've certainly been a student of leadership for some time...

Your description is a very apt one when describing the current Presidential administration. It couldn't be more wrong when it comes to the education system, and wrong on so many levels. Again be careful to to conflate things that aren't really in any way related.

So I see what you're saying in that you assume all schools in say France are of the same caliber, although I'd have to think an INSEAD grad would pretty strongly disagree with that, and i-banking and consulting recruiting tend to back that up. Canada is actually far more homogenous in university...

Maybe it's a European thing. In the U.S. it matters a lot more if you went to University of Virginia or Liberty "University" for example, which are in different universes of respectability despite both being in Virginia. I'd say educated Americans care a lot more about what school you went to...

You're right, probably a bit of both. I like to occasionally probe the minds of the kinds of people who seem to honestly think things like the economy dramatically worsened between 2009 and 2017. It's interesting to see if I can figure out why they think that and why they're able to resist...

And that's because you've the ultimate armchair quarterback who's never touched a football. You've actually achieved nothing in the business world and have no education in economics or business or even statistics, but know everything about how it should be based on your "real world" experience...