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Yes. No surprise to see the market rally today. :) The same formula can be applied to the upside in current conditions (post FED market) when "everyone" is getting extremely bullish and excited following an already large up move.

Maybe if you're really creative and positive... :) Personally, I just don't see it. Monthly looks range bound over the last 9 or 10 months to me. I was bullish going into today's session for the short term (today) as most people were bearish and most people get it wrong, but I'm sure we'll...

Late shorts getting rekt. I already exploited my edge for today, so calling it a day after recovering from a drawdown from pre-market gambling and consider this day overall a bit chancy. I feel like a formula one driver trading the Open on days like these... :)

Stilll a very sensitive market, so + 40 points doesn't necessarily mean that much. But 3900 would be a nice conservative target on the day, IMO.

Triggered. Should easily see at least 3900 coming out of here now.

The main reason I'm leaning long is that the bearish sentiment is simply too strong now and most people (the crowd) usually get it wrong. A failure to breakout below Friday's LOD can be a sweet buy. If we get continuation lower there's an open gap around 3808, so maybe low 3800 and potentially...

Where you at, buddy? I'm in Norway and it's still snowing here, although technically it's spring now according to the calendar.

That was fast. And why I wasn't interested in chasing a long. Today is one of those days that may be outright silly to attempt to predict in advance as there's just way too much uncertainty at the moment. It's my belief that markets are periodically predictable/orderly and periodically more...

Nice. What next from here? Wobbly/sensitive/thin markets so far in ETH. Personally, I'm leaning long, but, I'm thinking we have a good chance at touching Friday's Close in RTH first. So, not chasing any longs. Yet.

Easy come - easy go. > 1 % up/down doesn't necessarily mean anything in this heightened volatility, so I wouldn't read too much into it. RTH cash session remains king, so wait with your celebrations until that's in session or profits have been taken. ;)

Black swan events are by definition unpredictable, so we can rule that one out. With everyone and their dog being a bear it sure warrants some caution towards the short side as it’s getting crowded. By tomorrow and in actionable time we should know. No need to predict right now. :)

Never average down is about the only trading rule I'm able to follow without fail. One could easily lose a ton of money on such a day without averaging down, though. Intriguing comment. However, saying you make 20K a month is a meaningless number without mentioning on how much capital and at...

The best advice you'll ever get: "Don't even start."

From the outside it could appear like you took on a view, i.e., long/bull market, and now you’re defending that view in face of evidence to the contrary. Am I wrong? :)

I was told we’re in a bull market. :cool:

That's exactly what I've been trying to communicate to you since page 2 or 3. :) First of all, defining so called S/R objectively and accurately isn't necessarily straightforward. Admittedly, there can be some artistry involved unless you use objective levels such as prior/current day OHLC...

Your suggested play in advance was to short a break of 74, though. There's no beef on my end. I'm just suggesting that your proposed KISS method is too simplistic and requires a lot more nuance and sophistication to work for index futures.

No, I didn't buy it. Not trading today. But in hindsight, the ideal short entry for me in the afternoon would have been the failure at 12:50 (sell resistance) at a cluster of key levels (prior day close and Open). Generally, I don't short near a low. I don't see anything special about 74 other...

I would be chasing the long side here. Maybe you should take these questions in a separate thread in order to not hi-jack @Scataphagos thread? I'm sure it would be interesting.

A very simple approach which works across all market conditions is buying swing lows and selling swing highs. That's where the risk is the smallest and the reward is the greatest. Typically, it also puts you in the market way before a pending breakout. Of course, way easier said than done and...