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benwm, I am also genuinely interested in this, so would be very happy to discuss... I'll dig up some specific hard data that I have been looking at. Also, one caveat is that it's difficult to decompose the impact of economic conditions from that caused by dysfunctional politics. The one...

Well, I don't know, man... As long as we're going all anecdotal, I know a few Japanese peeps... They were so deliriously happy with their lives in Japan, they just couldn't get out of there fast enough. At any rate, I would happily agree that, in reality, things are a lot more...

Yeah, fine, but you're looking at the mkt over way too short of a horizon. Let me give you an analogy. I have been watching Greek bonds all year and they've been doing exactly what you describe, i.e. melt ups followed by melt downs on the back of random rumors, bailout speculation etc...

I will retort with whatever I think is appropriate. If you don't like it, there isn't much I can do about it, is there? Generally, I am not sure I see the point you're making. Why does it have to be such a ridiculously trivialised false dilemma? Either it's deflation or 20+ years of...

DOM in FX is a rather quaint notion. There's no good way to tell, unless it's smth big. Sometimes you can detect large flows when the mkt moves sharply for no good macro reason. For example, when HSBC was pre-hedging the Pru rights offering/AIA bid not so long ago, they did it in a...

Quick, someone let the Japs know... The poor dears are at their wits ends, trying to deal with their deflation problem. If only they realised that all these things they're so unhappy about are actually good for them, they might just get to relax and enjoy themselves.

Yeah, it appears that in the world of financial analysts and journalists (and online trading forums) shock, fear-mongering and exaggeration is what sells. Moreover, Whitney's record after her Shittygroup call has been mediocre, at best. So, to be honest, her more outrageous recent predictions...

I didn't mean that the lack of a single comprehensive tax policy is necessarily inflationary. My point was that it's, unfortunately, another flaw in the construction of the EMU, for all the reasons you have brought up yourself. As to what happened with peripheral bubbles, ask yourself this...

Interesting counterpoint to Whitney: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-22/meredith-whitney-overreaches-in-muni-default-call-commentary-by-joe-mysak.html

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Yep, although I don't look at inflation on quite such a grand scale myself, Ed... I just punt them linkers, y'know? Buy high, sell low, that sorta thing :). At any rate, yes, you're generally right, but the Eurozone is an interesting place, where all sorts of different inflation dynamics...

So it's all Dubya's fault, you sayin'?

If I may interject... A house is never free, innit? It might cost you nothing upfront to buy, but that's an entirely different kettle of fish.

If I am not mistaken, NFIB mentions this pretty much every time they publish their confidence numbers (I think Dunkelberg, their chief eco, has been banging this drum for a while). Again, rigor is all fine and dandy, but they're not exactly shocking anyone with their conclusions.

I am a very very strong believer in doing everything on a strictly bottom-up basis. Given that I am not a dealer, I don't have to have a book absolutely full of all sorts of crap that I have to manage on an aggregate basis. This means a) I keep it as simple as possible; b) always look at...

Each Eurozone country's statistical agency (for an overwhelming majority of them) publishes their own CPI numbers. At the same time, they publish a version that is harmonized to the common European standard, HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices). The differences vary and are due to...

The solution: http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2010/12/tmm-solves-uk-structural-deficit.html

I appreciate the sentiment, trefoil, but I think the "bone up on economics" comment wasn't addressed at me, but rather at 5yr. In general, I think that the Fed (as well as other central banks) does need to accept some of the blame for the housing bubble. However, it's beyond silly to blame...

Generally, most of the muni investors are local residents. What are they doing in Europe exactly?

I don't wish to interfere in your discussion, but, with all due respect, you think it's wise to just ignore people who happen to disagree with you? I have always been taught that, as a trader, one should cherish the opportunity to talk to people with opposing views, but, then again, that's just...